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A better name for 'Decred' to broaden the reach of our superior vision

This is a detailed proposal I planned to have put up for vote on Politeia. But was told it would need a more detailed plan of execution (budget, marketing, devs etc) which is beyond my expertise. I invite everyone in the DCR community to read it and contribute to make it a reality.
Intro:
Warm greetings to everyone! I am a DCR supporter with a background in law and media. For years I was a news reporter in one of China's largest television networks, during that time I have accumulated a solid understanding of mass communication and presentation.
I fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole in 2017 and has not look back since. But I believe DCR is a superior store-of-value and a decentralised organism capable of long-term adaptability thus securing the long term financial sovereignty and organisation of people around the world.
Problem:
However, there is a growing sense in the community that Decred has a name recognition barrier to overcome. That was expressed by the DEX developers saying the concern they have is 'getting the word out there'(Decred in Depth May 15th), a concern echoed by many others. The community also appears to be debating and experimenting with various outreach strategies. I have confidence in our vision, developers and contributors. However, they are not the only factors determining the success of a project. When it comes to the expansion of name recognition, adoption and network effects, the competition is fierce and likely winner takes most or even all (see Matthew effect, "Whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them." Bible Matt 13:12 ).
If we do not present our project in the most approachable way possible, I do believe we are at risk of missing out on the golden window of adoption, and the project might never really catch on. That would be a big shame because the world would never be able to adopt our superior vision of Bitcoin sound money, and if the governance issues of bitcoin does flare up further down the road, there is a risk of it being corrupted, neutralised or captured by some predatory governments and the international fiat financiers, and they will never allow something like Bitcoin to develop among the masses again, if that happens, Decred would not be large enough to deter them either.
Reasons for Proposal:
I would like to lay out reasons why the name 'Decred' is not a good name for our project and is holding us back at the moment. I obviously have great respect all the design and planning that has gone before and my fellow Decredees already working on design projects will be incentivised to vote against my proposal. But I am offering constructive criticism and we all want the project to succeed and do not want proposals to just validate whatever we have been doing before. So I hope you would consider this carefully and objectively.
I suggest that the name of our project 'Decred' should be reviewed and rebranded.
Firstly, the name 'Decred (decentralized credits)' is manifestly tech and developer centred, it reflects the perspective and values of the brilliant minds that conceived our project. I understand the monumental importance of decentralization, but for the newcomer the word is hard to grasp.
When introducing the name of a project, we want to communicate what would register as substance that can be easily grasped by people. 'Bitcoin' emphasizes that it is digital and has value. The word 'Coin' is easily understood as substance, 'Coin' is a classic word communicating value that appeals to the most primordial circuits of our brains as something you want( to hold in your hand), something of value, something that jingles in your pocket, something shiny that you want to accumulate and collect.
In contrast, the "De" in Decred gives a notion of negation and negativity, not of substance and affirmation, as is common in the English language (for example: devalue, dethrone, debunk, devolve, dejected). I fully appreciated that to us insiders 'de' signifies 'decentralized' and is of enormous substance and value, but that is not apparent to the newcomer and even implies the opposite.
Secondly, 'Cred (as in credit)' is also very intangible compared to 'Coin', credit only developed later in human economy and do not register with the same force as 'Coin' in our neural circuitry that identifies value. In our day and age, the word 'credit' also has a negative connotations (for example: credit bubble, credit card fraud, credit crunch, credit crisis). In short, credit is associated with volatility and fragility, which is very contrary to the nature of our robust project that values reliability and long-term adaptability.
So with all due respect, "Decred" is not a good name to communicate what we stand for. Compared to 'Bitcoin', it does not meet people where they are (we want people to come for the profit and stay for the vision and tech, most people are like that, for better or for worse), 'Decred' is a bit too self-obsessed with putting what's under-the-hood of the project right upfront in the name, it is not at all obvious what 'Decred' means to a curious person who wanders into cryptoland. In addition, "Decred" bears an unwelcome resemblance to the word "Discredit" which is also another minus.
We should focus more on how the name of our project makes people feel, rather than emphasising function and features that newcomers are unlikely to grasp easily. The majority of people make decisions based on how it makes them feel, not on utility and reason alone. Bitcoin understands this, it struck a more visceral part of the human psyche, people want 'Coins' that can go up in value, but in fact that hopeful speculation and hopium was the Trojan's horse for the masses to adopt a more decentralized, censorship-resistance and secure form of monetary system. Our project should do the same, starting with the name.
Thirdly, I would like to put forward my idea about what should replace the name "Decred'. There can be little doubt that Decred is building on the brilliance and vision of Bitcoin (PoW, 21 million supply cap, transparency and decentralization). In a way, our project aims to be more 'Bitcoin' than Bitcoin, PoW+PoS improves security, the governance mechanism + treasury ventures to where Bitcoin has not gone before, which is building decentralization and transparency in the governance and evolutionary process of the project itself.
Our project lead Jacob Yocom-Piat, whom I really respect, shared how he discovered a 'central planning committee' running things in Bitcoin and believed it was contrary to the spirit of Bitcoin, that helped give birth to the name 'Decred'.
Therefore I believe the 'De' in Decred is a further doubling down of the principle of decentralization ('like it or not, we are taking this all the way, Bitcoin!') , it is a protest. 'Cred' could also be a reaction against the more tangible name 'Coin' signifying that we are moving further beyond it in the digital economy with 'decentralised credits'. However, as I have already laid out above, it is not an approachable name from the perspective of the new adopter. Decred is in essence a reactionary name, and is not optimal for presenting a project that is already digital, intangible and hard to grasp.
History shaped the name 'Decred' and that is a beautiful thing, we would not be here without it. But I suggest it is time to move beyond by taking a step back. We do not want to be going against the grain of two things: 1) human nature and the learning curve towards the tangible and affirmative as opposed the the negational and negative. 2) the already established network effect of the name recognition of 'Bitcoin'. Going against these two grains will make it unnecessarily harder for our outreach, thus hamstringing adoption, instead we should go with the grain and ride the wave of already established network effects by tapping into people's familiarity with the word 'Bitcoin' .
Therefore I propose the new name of our project should at least include the word 'Bitcoin" followed by a word to describe the unique way our project has taken Bitcoin forward.
Bitcoiner Dan Held mention in his blog how: "Bitcoin is the Apex predator of money" https://www.danheld.com/blog/2019/1/6/planting-bitcoinspecies-14 I truly believe that title actually belongs to our project. With our treasury, potential consensus rule changes through politeia and extra security compared to Bitcoin, we will evolve our way up the monetary food-chain because we are robust and superiorly adaptable. As Chris Buriske says: "In #crypto, so long as you have good governance, you can have any feature you want."
Thus, I further suggest our rebranded name be: Bitcoin Evolution (Bitcoin E/BTE). I believe this faithfully reflects our ethos of being true to the spirit of Bitcoin while also being future-proof and adaptable (Although the vote in this proposal itself is not a referendum on Bitcoin Evolution, I will explain at the end).
For people looking into our project, trying to figure out what we are about, 'Bitcoin Evolution' really speaks for itself.
The famous Bitcoin educator Andreas Antonopoulos once said that "the next Bitcoin is Bitcoin". I take it to mean that the idea of Bitcoin is larger than the specific chain Satoshi Nakamoto started himself. If that's true, it is justified for a later project that takes the spirit of Bitcoin even further to adopt the name Bitcoin E. E means Evolution.
Also on the off chance that we turn out to be more wrong about Bitcoin's governance than we think and Bitcoin's rough consensus works out just fine (no more hard forks, successfully implements privacy, no VC corruption etc). Then Bitcoin will become the indisputable 'gold standard' and likely take most of the pie, in that case if our name highlights our similarity to Bitcoin and our governance model also hold its own, we will likely end up doing better than sticking to our protest name 'Decred'. This is from a risk management perspective that we might want to consider.
Also on the off chance that we turn out to be more wrong about Bitcoin's governance than we think and Bitcoin's rough consensus works out just fine (no more hard forks, successfully implements privacy, no VC corruption etc). Then Bitcoin will become the indisputable 'gold standard' and likely take most of the pie, in that case if our name highlights our similarity to Bitcoin and our governance model also hold its own, we will likely end up doing better than sticking to our protest name 'Decred'. This is from a risk management perspective that we might want to consider.
Possible Objections:
I am happy to engage with any question or objections in the comments sections. But allow me to first anticipate some objections I foresee here.
Q1) "Rebranding now will undo too much of the work we have done before. It is too late."
A1: By all the indicators that matter, we are still very early. With the upcoming bull market in this money printer go brrr macro economics setting, a new wave of new investors will be flooding into the crypto sphere in the next 2-3 years, and they will be coming for Bitcoin. By not going against the grain of the established Bitcoin name, the attention Bitcoin Evolution will receive down the years would far outweigh what loss we incur from rebranding. Short term pain, long term gain.
Q2) "Won't we be making an opportunistic gambit and look like scammy or weak projects like Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Diamond and Bitcoin Gold ? What if we attract all the wrong people and destroy our community culture?"
A2: I believe regardless of others think, our rebranding is not an opportunistic gambit. Bitcoin Diamond, Gold and etc are forks of Bitcoin that misses the point of what BTC was about. We are not a fork of Bitcoin (and we aim precisely to avoid contentious hard forks). Nevertheless, the spirit of Bitcoin is faithfully implemented in our chain.
We preserve the immutability and robustness of BTC and take the decentralization principle to its full logical conclusion, which is for it to permeant development and community decision -making. One can say we are the true heirs of Bitcoin and we should carry the mantle proudly if we really believe in our vision.
I also do not believe "Bitcoin Evolution" will attract all the wrong people. We will have a huge influx for sure, and that will put us under pressure. But unlike Bitcoin 'Cash' Gold or Diamond', people will coming to us will understand we have the long term and adaptability in mind, 'evolution' suggests it is a long game. The quick buck at all costs bunch will not find ours to be the most enticing name.
I also have faith in our incredible community of communicators and educators to bring new people onboard to our long term mindset.
In addition, when we rebrand, the people who know Decred well and support it will not abandon ship just because they don't like the new name.
The people who are already critical of Decred will no doubt seize the opportunity to attack and insinuate. Haters gonna hate. We did not care before and should not start fretting. I invite all to focus on all the new and curious adopters and explorers who will be flocking to us because of the Bitcoin name, and rightly so.
Q3) "If the fundamentals are sound, won't the project catch on even if the name 'Decred' is unrelatable? Just a matter of time right?"
A3: No. The history of other network effects has shown, the success of a project depends on many factors, it is not just a simple framework of a sifting mechanism eventually singling out the best tech and best ideas.** Sometimes it is not the best idea that wins, but the idea that is good enough at the right time and the right place wins.*\* Think of the internet protocol TCP/IP. We have to have the right ideas at the right time and meet growth goals at an appropriate speed to break out of bottlenecks and achieve network adoption.
With Bitcoin there is the added risk of entrenched centralised establishments exploiting the weaknesses in its governance to neutralised it, if they succeed, we will likely not get a second chance. We should not leave that to chance and refine our project in as many ways as possible.
I believe precisely because we have sound fundamentals of decentralized governance, that when time is ripe to consider a rebrand, we will meet the need together and start this conversation to get the job done. But the project won't automatically catch on by itself, we need to explore and make decisions together to improve it.
In conclusion:
In our name, let us not present to the world what we are against (centralisation), but what we are for(Adaptive future-proof Bitcoin with all its classic strengths). Let us go with the grain of human nature and the network effects of name recognition and not unnecessarily strive against it.
I believe just like a teenager transitioning into adulthood, we are coming of age in a new era of growth and self-awareness. And sometimes, growth means taking a step back to recalibrate and orient ourselves.
What you are voting on:
I hope to ignite a constructive discussion about a serious plan to rebrand for the better. I do not ask for any funding as it is not up to me to implement anything, I just hope my insights can help us on the journey of changing the world for the better with our superior vision of an unstoppable decentralised organism. The How, Who and When questions concerning rebranding should be explored by the community together.
If you Vote 'Yes' you are not necessarily saying we are just going to rebrand to "Bitcoin Evolution" or even a new name with "Bitcoin" in it. Voting 'Yes' means you see the merits of my arguments and want to seriously consider rebranding and turning the page from the current name 'Decred'.
I have been engaging with the Chinese Decred community but I am not known to the community at large, so I understand there will be a lot of questions and scepticism and I welcome all constructive feedback.
I also want to pay my deep respects to all the developers, contributors and everyone who has dedicated their time and passion to our project. Let's keep building together!
If you appreciate the work I put into this, feel free to make a voluntary donation:
DCR: DsWgLiEBw5YAHqrfZpYQjgPYhAT2DkdD6m9
BTC: 3GtuhwsoY2BYjqbaf2tCdjZbZw2Zn4H48P
You can follow me on twitter: https://twitter.com/decredinator
Peace, decredinator
submitted by Decredinator to decred [link] [comments]

WSB101 - THE BOOK OF YOLO: BEGINNERS GUIDE TO TRADING LIKE A DEGENERATE AND EVERYTHING WSB

The Book of Yolo: COMPLETE GUIDE TO WSB
The goal of this is to actually create something that all of you WSB newbies can read - because we’re all tired of seeing the endless wave of uninformed and unavoidable stupidity from those who have never touched the stock market. CALLING ALL NEWFAGS AND NORMIES.
If you can’t read, GFY now.
Now that we will be on the popular section of reddit, this has become pertinent. WSB can't avoid newcomers, so we might as well explain how the clock ticks here. This one is for you all.
This is to serve as a reference what values we hold, what instruments we use, and as a general place to educated the uneducated.
First off, this is the LEAST helpful stock market-based community for newcomers. Sarcastic answers are the only thing of true value here. It isn't a place to learn, but a place to plan out where you will dock your yacht. Newcomers are usually berated upon asking the inevitable stupid questions that they could learn slowly from reading here, or just using a damn search engine. Instead of embarrassing yourself here, you now have the opportunity to read this and get what we’re all rambling about.
This will help you understand what to expect if you make the decision to undertake a WSB style trading career, so you can stay here and contribute to the yolo lifestyle or otherwise GFY.
I will edit in any suggestions that our frequenting users or mods want to add to this as well.
To begin: Here are our topics for WSB101
-Basics (Equities/Stocks)
;
-ETF's
;
-Options
;
-Futures Trading
;
-SubCulture
;
BASICS/EQUTIES Skip if you understand basic stock stuff
Okay, so what is an equity/stock? An equity is essentially what you’d think of as your “vanilla” trading tool. They move up or down depending on market forces, and can range from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. To explain how stocks work, let's define a few terms.
Volume: The number of shares of stock traded during a particular time period, normally measured in average daily trading volume.
Spread: The difference between the bid and the ask price
Bid Price: The current price in which someone wants to buy at
Ask Price:The current price in which someone wants to sell at
Volatility: The WSB favorite. Volatility is referring to the price movements of a stock as a whole. The higher the volatility, the more the stock is moving up or down. Highly volatile stocks are ones with extreme daily up and down movements and wide intraday trading ranges.
Margin: A margin account lets a person borrow money (take out a loan essentially) from a broker to purchase an investment. The difference between the amount of the loan, and the price of the securities, is called the margin. Margin is one of WSB’s popular instruments of wealth and destruction.
Dividend: This is a portion of a company’s earnings that is paid to shareholders, or people that own hat company’s stock, on a quarterly or annual basis. Not all companies do this.
PPS: Acronym for “Price per Share”
Moving Average: A stock’s average price-per-share during a specific period of time.
Bullish: Expecting the stock to go up
Bearish: Expecting the stock to go down
Any raised hands can redirect themselves to here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082614/how-stock-market-works.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186
Now that these terms are defined, let's move into the details of why this is even useful. Most people know what a stock is, but how and why stocks move is a different story. The stock market is essentially a big virtualization of supply and demand - meaning that usually high positive volume creates upwards movement in the PPS, where high negative volume does the opposite. This creates a trader’s opportunity; Generally, the most effective time to buy or sell is where the candlesticks (volume data) are thinning out. When you are ready to take an entry point or execute an exit point, waiting till the volatility (candlesticks) thin out is one method to give you best trade possible.
WSB FAVORITE EQUITIES: Of many equities, WSB favors the riskier ones - but avoiding penny stocks is a policy.
AMD - CEO Lisa Su, Next Gen Processors, chips, graphics. It’s the gamers gambit. Up roughly 1400% as of 2/7/2017 since WSB first mentioned it
NVDA - AMD’s sister? Mother? Daddy? Who knows. NVDA has been a sexy semiconductor leader. Is up 400% since gaining traction on WSB.
FNMA / pfds - Mnunchin, Trump, Big fat fannies. Get your self deep in the fannie. We all want it. WSB 10 bagger candidate for reforming the housing market. WSB holds a large cumulative position that can be seen below. Also a good read is the beginners guide to FNMA. Any post by u/NOVACPA is very often VERY informative on FMNA/pfds.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5oissp/results_wsb_fnmafmcc_holdings
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5t7gba/beginngers_guide_to_fnma_fmcc_read_this_before/
ARRY - A biotech champion that prevailed after a lot of failures and huge losses in the biotech sector. Dark times for WSB. Up ~300% since getting traction on the subreddit.
TWTR - WSB likes to buy put option contracts on her. Exemplary of a social media platform that is unable to monetize itself.
TSLA - Maybe not unanimously a favorite, but loved for it’s sexy volatility, Elon Musk, and ridiculously expensive options.
GILD - A Shkreli pump and dump? The greatest large cap pharma recovery of all time? Who knows. Martin took the time to make a post on this reddit and it is up $5 dollars since.
ETF'S
Welcome to the world of investing made easy. Exchange traded funds (etfs) are devices that can be traded like stocks, but often track the value of many companies by investing in their listed assets accordingly. Specifically, An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than mutual fund shares, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors.
ETF’s come in beautiful and delicious varieties, often with a BEAR form and a BULL form of each; but the most delicious to WSB are the 3x etf’s. A 3x ETF is one in which the underlying movement of the ETF is leveraged 3:1. Meaning for every movement within the underlying index or stocks, the 3x ETF moves well.... 3x as much..
WSB FAVORITE AND USEFUL ETF’S:
JNUG - 3x Gold Miner Bull - A hit or miss, has extreme intraday movements and essentially tracks GDX (gold miner’s index). Jnug will usually move with a pretty strong correlation to gold, which is affected by the mentioning of rate hikes (negatively), movement of the US dollar (inversely), uncertainty (positively), and supply and demand.
NUGT - Jnug with a different price tag
JDST - The inverse 3x etf of JNUG - or the bear etf. It does almost exactly the opposite movements of JNUG by the tick. Moves for the same reasons, but obviously opposite directions.
DUST - Jdst with a different price tag.
UGAZ - Natural Gas 3x Bull ETF - essentially tracks the price value of the commodity Natural Gas, but more specifically the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index. Natural gas is most affected by Weather temperature conditions (use your brain), petroleum prices, and broader economic conditions.
DGAZ - Inverse of UGAZ
UWT - Crude Oil Bull 3x ETF - extreme intraday movements, closely follows the price of oil. More specifically, it tracks futures. UWT seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times of the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER. The index tracks a hypothetical position in the nearest-to-expiration NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract, which is rolled each month into the futures contract expiring in the next month. The value of the index fluctuates with changes in the price of the relevant NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts.
DWT - Inverse of UWT
FAS - Financial Bull, specifically FAS seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index. The fund creates long positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in the securities that comprise the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index and/or financial instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. Can be used when bullish on US financial services - so banks, lenders, etc.
FAZ - Inverse of FAS
UPRO - S&P500 Bull 3x ETF, essentially tracks the S&P500 and multiplies it’s returns by 3x.
BRZU - Tracks Brazil (in its most basic form). It creates long positions in the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.
LABU - Tracks the Biotech sector, or specifically 300% of the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index ("index"). It should be noted that LABU has doubled since just before the election of Donald Trump.
LABD - Inverse of LABU
RUSL - roughly creates 300% of the performance of the MVIS Russia Index.
RUSS - Inverse of RUSL
SPY - Tracks the S&P500, but is not 3x.
OPTIONS:
Alright, so half you are going to understand this, and half of you are not. Pull up an options chain now on any stock (penny stocks and specific stocks do not have chains because of their market cap). Options are truly the ultimate way to achieve maximum risk/reward.
An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price, on a certain date. This concept makes options a commodity themselves.
KEY TERMS:
A CALL - is the right to buy. Buying calls is taking a bullish position in its most extreme form.
A PUT - is the right to sell.
The underlying - is the stock that the option is covering i.e. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN
Strike Price - the price at which a put or call option can be exercised.
ITM, In the money - In the money means that a call option's strike price is below the market price of the underlying asset or that the strike price of a put option is above the market price of the underlying asset. Being in the money does not mean you will profit, it just means the option is worth exercising.
OTM, Out of the money - a call option with a strike price that is higher than the market price of the underlying asset, or a put option with a strike price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset.
ATM - At the money - Strike price at the same price as the underlying
Expiration - Expiries for options are every friday of every week usually, with exceptions such as every month, or every other day - depending on the underlying. SPY and SPX are great examples of very active option chains with expiries every other day. On the expiry date or any time before (with american options), an option can be, but doesn’t have to be exercised, meaning the holder of the option can use it to buy or sell shares of the underlying stock at the strike price. Most people on WSB do not exercise the contracts, but merely flip them for increases in value as the underlying moves.
For example, when AAPL was at 120 before its earnings report, Joe Shmoe Yolo buys 10 FEB 17th CALLS at strike 127 for .60 , each. Now .60 cents is really 60 dollars each, because the contract is multiplied by 100 (the right to 100 shares). In total, Joe Shmoe Yolo spends $600 dollars + commision on this trade. The next day, AAPL leaps to 130 upon great news. These same option contracts are now worth 3.50 each. $350 dollars per contract, times ten contracts is $3500 dollars. Joe Shmoe Yolo just turned $600 into $3500 dollars. MAGIC. Spoiler alert: Joe Shmoe Yolo was me.
That same Joe Shmoe later buys FEB 17th XOM calls at 90, hoping for similar results. However, XOM ends up never reaching anywhere close to the strike price, and the options expire worthless. Get it?
Now what determines the pricing of options?
OPTION PRICING:
Below is sourced from investopedia
Intrinsic Value: The intrinsic value is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Additionally, intrinsic value is primarily used in options pricing to indicate the amount an option is in the money.
Time Value: Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value. The more time an option has until it expires, the greater the chance it will end up in the money. The time component of an option decays exponentially. The actual derivation of the time value of an option is a fairly complex equation. As a general rule, an option will lose one-third of its value during the first half of its life and two-thirds during the second half of its life. This is an important concept for securities investors because the closer you get to expiration, the more of a move in the underlying security is needed to impact the price of the option. Time value is basically the risk premium that the option seller requires to provide the option buyer the right to buy/sell the stock up to the date the option expires. It is like an insurance premium of the option; the higher the risk, the higher the cost to buy the option. Makes sense, right?
Time value is determined by the expiration date. An expiration date in derivatives is the last day that an options contract is valid. When investors buy options, the contracts gives them the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell the assets at a predetermined price, called a strike price, within a given time period, which is on or before the expiration date. If an investor chooses not to exercise that right, the option expires and becomes worthless, and the investor loses the money paid to buy it.
Volatility:
In an options pricing, you see IV. This stands for implied volatility. The higher that is, the higher the options will be priced Volatility is the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the option's expiration. Volatility, as expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises from daily trading activities. How volatility is measured will affect the value of the coefficient used.
Decaying Nature of Options:
Decay refers to derivative trading (i.e. options). When you sell or buy a call/put (using those two for simplicity purposes) you don't get an infinite time frame to make your dreams come true. Time is your enemy; the further out the expiration date, the less time decay there is. Time decay really hits the worst the week of expiration. Sound confusing? Say you're buying options of the stock WSB (I hope you're seeing what I did there) - and the option costs $1, the expiration is this Friday. Say today is Monday. You buy a call expecting WSB to take you to the moon and beyond. Each day the stock doesn't move closer to your strike price or remains stagnant/drops, you lose value on your option + the time decay. Meaning if it finishes closer to your strike price, your option could be worthless because of that time decay. Questions? Ask away.
A great example of these factors in action is TSLA.
TSLA’s options are among the most expensive for companies in its price range, why?
An in the money TSLA call expiring this week is worth around $1100 per contract. Insanely expensive. But for a reason. TSLA has extreme intraday movements and calls have an implied volatility of 40.92%. Which is fairly high. In addition to that, it holds high intrinsic value / price per share, and a week of time value.
-Futures 101 - The Ultimate YOLO Guide (thanks to u/IncendiaryGames)
Okay, a lot of you have been YOLOing on faggot delights on SPY options. How would you like to trade something with the same or more leverage, 1.0 delta, and no time premium costs? Have you considered futures? What are futures? Unlike options, futures is a contract where both the buyer and seller is obligated to perform the transaction by the expiration. Conversely, in options, only the seller is obligated to perform. That means you can lose more than your investment. Originally they were used by farmers to sell future crops early and guarantee some amount of sales. Since then futures have expanded not just to commodities but currency and equity indices like the S&P 500. Why the heck would I want to trade futures? Here are the advantages: Leverage $5k is the margin requirement for most contracts. For example with the E-mini S&P 500 with 5k you're trading $120k worth of stuff. 1 contract = 500 spy shares. Some brokers offer intraday daytrading margin rates too - TD Ameritrade is 25% of the overnight margin rate($1,250.) Some brokers go as low as $500 an /ES future. SPAN Margin If 24x overnight leverage and 240x day trade leverage didn't give you a hard on there is also SPAN margin, which is like portfolio margin on steroids. The beauty of SPAN margin is you don't need a $125k+ account to be eligible. SPAN will greatly reduce your margin requirements if you hold uncorrelated or inversely correlated positions (up to an 80% discount, here is a list of groups that give discounts) and if you hedge with options. Hedge with the right option or asset and now you have up to 500x day trading margin. 23/7 and day trading Ever get in and out of an equity only to have your broker yell at you to stop doing that or deposit $25k? There is no pattern day trading restrictions on futures. Feel free to day trade and blow up your account as often as you want! You can also trade 23 hours a day. Get trading on how the S&P 500 index will react to news from China right away. Taxes No matter how long or how short you hold you always get taxed under the 60/40 rule. 60% of your profit from futures will be taxed as a long term gain and 40% will be taxed as short term gain. No wash sales. Trade your hearts out. Just remember holding past Dec 31st will treat you as if you closed all your positions that day and you'll be taxed on unrealized gains. Long/Short No need to pay interest or borrow shares as being short a future contract is being a writer, just like an options writer. Options Of course there are options. What fun would it be without options? Unlike stock options each contract gives different number of future contracts. Research what you're trading.
Ok. I'm convinced. I want to strat trading futures! What are some good strategies?
YOLO Strategies
Swing trading Trying to guess/predict/ride sudden market momentum. A low volume average day in the S&P 500 (/ES) for one contract can swing +- $500. Get it right and you can see a huge appreciation of value. /ES is usually highly liquid during regular hours with average volume of 1 million trades and usually bid-ask spreads of one tick. One approach is to buy or short in your direction and put in a stop loss to an amount you're comfortable to lose (say $200.) Since it's so liquid you'll likely be filled at or near your stop loss during the day if your trade goes against you. If you can guess the direction 50% of the time and have trades like this: trade 1 - gain $800 trade 2 - lose $200 Then you may profit over the time period. If you have a 50% chance of being wrong and losing $200 or 50% chance of being right and gaining $800 then over time you'll gain more than you lose. Also, since the present value of your futures contract is included in your margin calculation then if it goes strongly in your favor your position can quickly grow to cover its own margin and you can let it ride for a while. You'll want to be sure you enter a combo buy/short order along with a stop loss order simultaneously, like this for Thinkorswim. Futures can move suddenly and a sudden movement can make you lose a ton of money. Exploiting outdated SPAN margin guidelines There are several out of date correlations between popular futures like oil and say things like wheat that SPAN gives you margin credits on. Take whatever position you want in oil (/cl) then take the opposite in something that doesn't move much day to day with less volatility such as /w (wheat)) and your /cl and /w positions will get a 75% credit, giving you 50% more buying power on crude oil. (2 positions * .25 = 0.5). Trade your heart out on the more volatile future then when you're done close your safer future pair. SPAN is constantly changing but such a complex system definitely has its exploits. Automated/algorithmic trading For you programmer geeks out there it's really hard to algorithmic trade on small accounts due to pattern day trading rules and economies of scale with broker fees. Futures is probably the best way to get your feet wet. Join us on /algotrading if you want to explore more!
Boring safer strategies
I'm including these for completeness but these belong on /investing. Scalping With high frequency trading scalping is less guaranteed. Basically scalping is using tiny momentum as usually there are small micro patterns in futures buying and selling activity where it will rise or fall a couple of ticks. Since the notional value of each tick is $12.5 it's profitable for retail investors and small accounts to act as a market maker after fees at the smallest bid-ask spread possible. Spreads Just like you can trade spreads in options, you can trade calendar spreads in futures. Futures have contracts with different expiration dates and the prices are different for each month of expiration based on the market's expectations. You can go long or short the near month expiration and the opposite for the far month. This will hedge out any sudden market moves as that would likely affect both months. Bull markets in general tend to increase the price of the near month faster than the far month. Basically with a spread trade you're making a long term bet on bull or bear for the underlying future. Pairs trading You can go long in one future say the dow jones (/ym) and short the S&P 500 index and profit off the relative growth. This is a hedged trade as any market ups or downs will likely affect both positions with the same % value. For the past 180 days /ym - /es has been really profitable. Even if you don't do a full perfect pairs trade it is still a great option to reduce the leverage too on whatever index future you're trading so you can stay in longer or overnight. Interest rate and optimal leverage plays Since the $5k investment is equal to $120k of the S&P 500 index currently then you'll likely beat out the market by buying one future contract and putting $115k in safe treasuries or bonds or uncorrelated assets. Some people choose to leverage their stock portfolio and you can get the exact leverage ratio of liquid investments to future ratios. In probability theory the max leverage you can gain is determined by the Kelly Criterion which modeling shows indicates the S&P 500 index to be leveraged to 1.40x. Yes, you could do the same with options but even on SPY deep in the money call leaps are illiquid and have a time premium. Even today they are so deep ITM that the options you would need to use have 0 open interest and a bid-ask spread of $5 per share (so $500 per contract.) You'd need ~5 contracts per 120k so you're already eating $2.5k/$120k - 2% interest rate a year for that leverage. SPX isn't better, it's bid ask is 22 so you'd be eating $2.2k/$120k - 1.83% interest rate. It's doubtful you won't get much past the ask as its only market makers providing liquidity and guess what the market maker will do if you buy/sell the option? They will hedge with the underlying futures until their minimum profit is the risk free interest rate. Hedging Going long and short in various non correlated or negatively correlated assets to seek out a high sharpe ratio and have a higher risk free return that is market neutral. Basic hedge fund stuff. The variety and price efficiency of futures makes things pretty attractive in this area.
SUBCULTURE
Wallstreetbets is a community that has become infamous for the most wild west, moon or cardboard box trades on the planet earth. WSB is a place where you can take out thousand dollar loans, refinance your homes, cash advance all of your credit cards only to put it all on JNUG, and we will still love you. Your mother won't. Your father will never understand your spectrum of autism, but we will always love you. It is a uniquely beautiful community focused on praising its biggest losers as much as its biggest winners. To begin on the subculture, we should define some key moments in the sub's history.
HISTORY: (As made by u/digadiga) + my additions
2012: Jartek [+1] creates /wallstreetbets, and word slowly starts to ooze out. 2013: americanpegasus discovers pennies. AP has seen the light, and is a penny stock evangelist. Jartek & AP have an epic options vs pennies battle - they both lose a couple of hundred bucks, but we are entertained, and WSB is officially born. AP blows up his retirement, swears off pennies and moves onto bitcoins. 2014: fscomeau [+3] discovers options. He repeatedly bets five figures on AAPL calls before earnings. FS claims a supernatural clairvoyance of AAPL. FS then posts about his chest pains and ER visits. He finally suffers an epic loss. Is he dead? Is he alive? Is he is mother? Is he banned? Who cares? 2015: Photos from the 3rd annual meetup are posted. Where a bunch of dudes hang out on the romantic beaches of Guerrero Mexico. In a completely unrelated event, the wsb banner is changed to thousands of ejaculating dicks. Modpocalypse occurs. Hundreds of random users are added as moderators for a few months. None of the new mods can change the CSS. The constant whining about how "wsb isn't what it used to be" continues. Someone attempts to show how selling covered calls is idiot proof, but gets lazy, bets all six figures on Apple, and suffers significant losses. Robinhood gets popular. Should you buy one share of AMZN or one share of GOOGL? Who gives a fuck. 2016: Everyone starts saying "go fuck yourself." Except me. Because I am what I am. And if you don't like it, you can all go fuck yourselves. u/World_Chaos performs one of the more impressive yolo's of the sub, starting with 900 dollars, and turning it into 55k. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/414blh/yofuckinglo_900_to_55k_in_12_days/?ref=share&ref_source=link 2017: u/fscomeau preforms what he calls "The Final Yolo", a 300k trade against AAPL before earnings (that I, u/thor303456 inversed), supposedly supposed to net fscomeau 2.5 million or so, in which he will finally stop trading. FSC is featured on several market related articles and newspapers, showing up on yahoo, etc. Later we find proof during his livestream of AAPL earnings that he was paper trading. Even later, FSC writes a near 200 page book called "Wolfie Has Fallen" describing how he trolled the entire internet, some following him into that AAPL trade. Martin Shkreli visits the sub and proclaims that GILD pharma is worth over $100 a share and is deeply undervalued.
KEY FIGURES:
Donald J Trump - He is the Marmalade Manchurian, the Tangerine Tycoon, and our spray tan Stalin. Unbelievable night of election. WSB demographics show a primarily capitalist and right wing (or at least joking to be so) point of view, and thus we are generally pro trump. In actuality though, WSB is focused on pro-market, which Trump happens to be.
u/Jartek - Founder of the sub, original yoloer. Believe he has retired from reddit for the most part. Mostly inactive.
u/Fscomeau - The Canadian as some call him, and perhaps one of the most profound internet trolls of 2016-2017. A French-Canadian trader who deals with mostly options. The man has been called "The Great Inverse", and for a good reason. Nearly all of the trades or statements he made on WSB were completely wrong or mostly wrong. Truly the strongest technical indicator.
Martin Shkreli - An idol to many WSBers, Martin stands as the master of the biotech sector. A very debated character for very stupid reasons. Martin regularly tweets about the stock market, occasionally does a youtube channel, and livestreams fairly regularly.
u/theycallme1 - Educated trader, and mod of WSB. Roasts people often and roasts them good. Ask him the questions that aren't stupid. One of the most active mods.
u/world_chaos - some fucking college student with some real net worth. Sits on 100k or so (needs verification), and was an inspiring yoloer to all, with his 900 to 55k yolo with options.
Lingo, Terminology, and Nomenclature:
The Faggots Delights - Truly the most suicidal, yet clearest shot to the moon. This term is usually used to define either weekly, or daily option plays on the SPY/SPX. Some users trade them very profitably, such as u/MRPguy and many in the past.
Cuck - Truly the worst thing you could be. A cuck is a man who likes watching his wife/girlfriend fuck other guys. Weak, spineless, and a term often throw around here.
The YOLO - You only live once. This is something that is, and should be realized as undeniably true. Why are you sitting on a 5k emergency fund that is making you less interest in a year than what I just made in 10 minutes? Why haven't you used all of the credit on your 5 credit cards or used your testicles as collateral for a loan yet? YOLO or YOLOING is as much a psychological decision to embrace absurdism, and win with everything you have while risking it all. Yolo is what it means to be a WSB trader.
Bagholding or a Bagholder - When you're stuck with the most ass trade of your life, because you know it'll go back up. A bagholder is the 59 year old guy at the grocery store who won't quit his Job because he knows he only has to wait another year until he gets a return on his investment (of his life). Anyone holding SUNEQ is the definition of a bagholder.
Autists - Something we embrace, something we call each other, something we all are. Autism isn't used in an offensive way as much as it is a generally accepted term that defines us. The best traders have autism because of their distance from emotion. I bet you never made it to this part of the reading because you're such a damn autist.
Tendies - Tendies are what you get after you make a small amount of money. "I SOLD AMD TODAY FOR A $13 DOLLAR PROFIT, GOING TO MCD's TO GET MY TENDIES". Tendie money is usually shameful and insignificant, but at least it got you tendies. Chicken tenders at McDonalds are the least expensive for the most cholesterol.
I know some of the writing was half ass, full of errors, or otherwise not the best explanation. But I believe this will serve its purpose, and maybe help to promote new ideas from moderately educated traders. WSB has very strong traders, and the most uniquely risky trading styles on the planet. Hopefully this can serve to better the overall community.
You guys are all faggots, upvote this so we can get the noobs to stop trying to bite on our cocks.
Also I'd really appreciate input on anything to add to this overall. It took my over 3 hours to write up, so I eventually grew tired and probably have missing spots.
Enjoy your time here at WSB.
EDIT: Added a shit ton of stuff, fixed errors. THANKS FOR ALL OF YOUR INPUT, ACTUALLY MAKING WSB GREAT AGAIN
MODS: Can we make this editable by others mods or something? My fingers aren't enough. Seems like this could serve as a good "official" thing. Paging u/theycallme1 u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY etc
submitted by Thor303456 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Tens of billions in P2P funds enter cryptocurrency world with the hope of filling "capital holes" using speculation

Deleted my old post and reposting because of improper posting format on my part.
The following is a translation of Chinese news from a bit ago that didn't seem to have an English translation, but sounded like rather large news. Original Chinese text can be found here: https://news.p2peye.com/article-519039-1.html

Tens of billions of P2P funds enter cryptocurrency world with the hope of filling “capital holes” with speculation​

The P2P industry is currently experiencing the biggest shake-up in a long while, with a large number of platforms being removed or going out of business.
Following this shake-up, platforms, funds, practitioners, and investors have unexpectedly started migrating to the world of cryptocurrency.
Several quantitative investment teams on the market have expressed that they have received inquiries from P2P platforms. These platforms state that their funds number in the billions or even tens of billions, and ask whether or not it is possible to use these funds to speculate and double their value in around 3 months.
“The capital chain for a lot of these platforms are breaking down, so they want to use the cryptocurrency market to earn money and fill in the holes.” states Bing Qian, head of a quantitative investment team.
A dangerous game of desperation is currently being played.

01 A Dangerous Game
“I’ll give you $6 billion; you should use it to speculate on crypto’s secondary market.“ A month ago, Mr. Qian met a mysterious person in this manner.
They immediately wanted to give $6 billion to invest, but the most Mr. Qian had ever handled was $1 billion.
The thought of such massive amounts of money figuratively falling from the sky made Mr. Qian very excited.

He even started about the possibility of using $6 billion to initiate a “Soros attack” within the cryptocurrency market.
In the end, he made his plan: invest long in the futures market and raise the price of the coins, then short the futures market and pressure the price downward.
“$6 billion is enough to manipulate the price of Bitcoin.” Mr. Qian spend the night checking over and over again that this feat was indeed possible.
It was a classic play from the stock market playbook, but the biggest risk was whether or not another investor had even more funds to use and could enter into a game with him.

“If my opponent has more funds than me, the risk will be high, but if there is a large amount of orders, then it would be possible to increase the rate at which I’m making money.” states Mr. Qian. If his plan really succeeded, he though it would be spectacular and become a classic in the history of digital currency.

“Doubling $6 billion in half a year, I don’t think it’s hard.” After repeated calculations, Mr. Qian found that the possibility of ending in the red was low.
However, the mysterious person wasn’t ready to give Bing Qian that much time, giving him time limits such as only “three months” or “as soon as possible”.

Bing qian started to get suspicious and started questioning the source of the mysterious person’s funds, “I felt that they were very anxious, not like other big investors, who have a mentality of slowly but easily making money.”
After countless questions, the mysterious person finally admitted that they actually come from a P2P platform that ended up having billions of dollars worth of liabilities. “At most it can last another three months, after which it will implode if the liabilities and vulnerabilities at not addressed.”

In other words, they were prepared to use investors’ money to make a final “life or death” gamble.
“If the platform went under while I was handling the funds, then I might get implicated when the authorities step in and trace the whereabouts of the funds.” Mr. Qian tried to think of ways to mitigate the risk, but in the end every move would have been risky.
After hesitating for two weeks, he suddenly saw the platform appear on the news.
It had already imploded, and investors were collectively protecting their rights.
Mr. Qian was happy he didn’t accept the ticking time bomb, but then he realized, a shockingly large amount of P2P funds were entering the cryptocurrency market.
And brave teams had already accepted the funds.
“There are some worth millions and some worth billions; none of the sums are small.” Mr. Qian states. He has a peer that has already accepted a $500 million deal, and within 4 months has realized a 70% income.
The business has essentially given him financial freedom.
In the words of Mr. Qian, this is called “The deal of a lifetime”.
During such a violent shake-up of the P2P industry, a large number of platforms are trying to make money in this way. If they make money, then the platform continues operating; if they lose money, then they run away via bankruptcy.
According to the founders of several quantitative investment teams, the amount of P2P funds entering the cryptocurrency market is estimated to be in the tens of billions.
Mr. Qian reasons, “This could be the reason for the relatively large price swings in the market recently.
While a final stand might sound brave, it is actually just playing a very dangerous game.
Investors’ money being put into such a high-risk scenario, is P2P’s final gambit.


02 Steering Migration
Besides P2P platforms proactively moving money into the cryptocurrency market, a large amount of retail investors have also started to shift their battleground.
Most platforms that have gone under recently have been high-risk, high-interest rate platforms.
That is, users who are willing to use the platform tend to be less averse to risk.And this group of people naturally fits with speculators.
After these platforms collapse, investors start looking for new targets.
Cryptocurrency is currently marked as their next destination.
Ye He, an investor, recently earned millions of dollars through P2P lending and has been transferring it into cryptocurrency speculation.
“I allocate Bitcoin and Ethereum on a 7:3 scale” Mr. He states. Shortly after buying, Mr. He was pleasantly met with a surge in price.
He also states, “The speed and return is much higher than that of P2P”
According to P2Peye’s data, net outflow from the industry was valued at CNY¥11.27 billion.

Using East Silver Valley and MinDai TianXia as examples, from the time East Silver Valley came online until now, the net outflow of capital has been unmanageable, with a net outflow of $1.6 billion in March.
While MinDai TianXia does not have a net outflow, the net inflow between May and June has dropped off a cliff, severely decreasing.
In a survey done by data firms, 30% of investors said they would continue to invest in online lending, but only after regulation has been improved.
Another 20% said they no longer planned to invest in online lending, but instead switch to digital currencies.
Using this ratio, then in June there will be at least $2.2 billion in net inflows to the cryptocurrency market.
In addition, practitioners have been fleeing the online lending industry, leading to a massive transformation in demographics.
“Before, my friends were doing P2P, but now if they aren’t doing blockchain, then they are speculating coin prices.” an anonymous online lending businessman confesses; before you could see a lot online lending news within your circle of friends, but now when you look, it is mostly blockchain news.
“Since the beginning of the year, there have been constant calls from companies dealing with blockchain or cryptocurrency inviting me to interview.” an anonymous operational staff member of an online financial platform is quoted as saying.

The operations and market personnel in the online lending industry are highly sought after in the blockchain industry.
“The industries both have elements of wealth management, and have a lot of commonalities from the perspective of operations and market promotions, so we are poaching people from the online lending industry.” an anonymous HR personnel at a blockchain company states. They have already poached several senior executives.
The online lending industry is currently becoming the biggest reserve of human talent available to the blockchain industry.
“The recent wave of departures if very noticeable, with nearly 30% of online lending practitioners joining the cryptocurrency sector.“ says Lisa, a headhunter who specializes in online finance.
On the other hand, many P2P companies that have left the scene have also made great efforts to enter the digital currency field.
“A lot of P2P companies are created by real estate groups from Wenzhou or local rich owners. After they leave the P2P sector, they start to invest in or speculate on coin prices” says an anonymous P2P platform founder.
It is evident that many practitioners, platforms, and funds have started to collectively shift from P2P to cryptocurrency.


03 Where is the Road?
All money flows towards the highest possible yield.
There is currently a migration of money from P2P to cryptocurrency.
And the whole industry is starting to suffer from a shortage of assets.
A-Shares are trending downward, Hong Kong stocks are weak, and bank earnings are low, so many investors feel that their investment channels are very limited.
If the trade war between China and the US becomes more intense, then everyone’s risk aversion will undoubtedly get worse.
Last August, when the North Korean nuclear crisis escalated, South Korean conglomerates flooded into the cryptocurrency market.
At the time, the price of Ether rose 67% in two weeks, pushing it close to $300.
Back in June 2016, England formally decided to leave the European Union through a “Brexit referendum”.
Bitcoin rose 25% the same day, reaching a price of $714.
Some believe Bitcoin has a similar safe-haven quality to gold. The financial market uncertainty caused by Brexit has let people to choose Bitcoin.

While cryptocurrencies are slowly emerging as a new haven asset, it is not enough to prove that the transition from online lending is a wise choice.
“It may being jumping from the tiger’s den into the wolf’s den.” states Mr. Qian, “You need to pay tuition to get into this business.”
The unspoken rules and operations in this field are extremely complex. New, unfamiliar users metaphorically face a bloody battlefield.
And the P2P giants that have entered the field could become the next wave of victims.
“These people can’t play the coin market; they will be frisked down the moment they enter” states an anonymous person who helps P2P bosses enter the cryptocurrency market. In this sector, P2P bosses are still too naive.
The cryptocurrency market has not been friendly and welcoming towards the incoming funds, instead resisting it with everything they have.

Note:
Looking back at the online lending industry, it is not all doom and gloom.
An industry’s upward and downward trends are inevitable, as some leave, some will stay.
Some practitioners believe after this wave of closures, the remaining people will be the elite.
submitted by BUSD_official to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Tens of billions of P2P funds enter cryptocurrency world with the hope of filling “capital holes” with speculation

The following is a translation from Chinese news that didn't seem to have an English translation, but sounded like rather large news. Original Chinese text can be found here: https://news.p2peye.com/article-519039-1.html

The P2P industry is currently experiencing the biggest shake-up in a long while, with a large number of platforms being removed or going out of business.
Following this shake-up, platforms, funds, practitioners, and investors have unexpectedly started migrating to the world of cryptocurrency.
Several quantitative investment teams on the market have expressed that they have received inquiries from P2P platforms. These platforms state that their funds number in the billions or even tens of billions, and ask whether or not it is possible to use these funds to speculate and double their value in around 3 months.
“The capital chain for a lot of these platforms are breaking down, so they want to use the cryptocurrency market to earn money and fill in the holes.” states Bing Qian, head of a quantitative investment team.
A dangerous game of desperation is currently being played.

01 A Dangerous Game
“I’ll give you $6 billion; you should use it to speculate on crypto’s secondary market.“ A month ago, Mr. Qian met a mysterious person in this manner.
They immediately wanted to give $6 billion to invest, but the most Mr. Qian had ever handled was $1 billion.
The thought of such massive amounts of money figuratively falling from the sky made Mr. Qian very excited.

He even started about the possibility of using $6 billion to initiate a “Soros attack” within the cryptocurrency market.
In the end, he made his plan: invest long in the futures market and raise the price of the coins, then short the futures market and pressure the price downward.
“$6 billion is enough to manipulate the price of Bitcoin.” Mr. Qian spend the night checking over and over again that this feat was indeed possible.
It was a classic play from the stock market playbook, but the biggest risk was whether or not another investor had even more funds to use and could enter into a game with him.

“If my opponent has more funds than me, the risk will be high, but if there is a large amount of orders, then it would be possible to increase the rate at which I’m making money.” states Mr. Qian. If his plan really succeeded, he though it would be spectacular and become a classic in the history of digital currency.

“Doubling $6 billion in half a year, I don’t think it’s hard.” After repeated calculations, Mr. Qian found that the possibility of ending in the red was low.
However, the mysterious person wasn’t ready to give Bing Qian that much time, giving him time limits such as only “three months” or “as soon as possible”.

Bing qian started to get suspicious and started questioning the source of the mysterious person’s funds, “I felt that they were very anxious, not like other big investors, who have a mentality of slowly but easily making money.”
After countless questions, the mysterious person finally admitted that they actually come from a P2P platform that ended up having billions of dollars worth of liabilities. “At most it can last another three months, after which it will implode if the liabilities and vulnerabilities at not addressed.”

In other words, they were prepared to use investors’ money to make a final “life or death” gamble.
“If the platform went under while I was handling the funds, then I might get implicated when the authorities step in and trace the whereabouts of the funds.” Mr. Qian tried to think of ways to mitigate the risk, but in the end every move would have been risky.
After hesitating for two weeks, he suddenly saw the platform appear on the news.
It had already imploded, and investors were collectively protecting their rights.
Mr. Qian was happy he didn’t accept the ticking time bomb, but then he realized, a shockingly large amount of P2P funds were entering the cryptocurrency market.
And brave teams had already accepted the funds.
“There are some worth millions and some worth billions; none of the sums are small.” Mr. Qian states. He has a peer that has already accepted a $500 million deal, and within 4 months has realized a 70% income.
The business has essentially given him financial freedom.
In the words of Mr. Qian, this is called “The deal of a lifetime”.
During such a violent shake-up of the P2P industry, a large number of platforms are trying to make money in this way. If they make money, then the platform continues operating; if they lose money, then they run away via bankruptcy.
According to the founders of several quantitative investment teams, the amount of P2P funds entering the cryptocurrency market is estimated to be in the tens of billions.
Mr. Qian reasons, “This could be the reason for the relatively large price swings in the market recently.
While a final stand might sound brave, it is actually just playing a very dangerous game.
Investors’ money being put into such a high-risk scenario, is P2P’s final gambit.


02 Steering Migration
Besides P2P platforms proactively moving money into the cryptocurrency market, a large amount of retail investors have also started to shift their battleground.
Most platforms that have gone under recently have been high-risk, high-interest rate platforms.
That is, users who are willing to use the platform tend to be less averse to risk.And this group of people naturally fits with speculators.
After these platforms collapse, investors start looking for new targets.
Cryptocurrency is currently marked as their next destination.
Ye He, an investor, recently earned millions of dollars through P2P lending and has been transferring it into cryptocurrency speculation.
“I allocate Bitcoin and Ethereum on a 7:3 scale” Mr. He states. Shortly after buying, Mr. He was pleasantly met with a surge in price.
He also states, “The speed and return is much higher than that of P2P”
According to P2Peye’s data, net outflow from the industry was valued at CNY¥11.27 billion.

Using East Silver Valley and MinDai TianXia as examples, from the time East Silver Valley came online until now, the net outflow of capital has been unmanageable, with a net outflow of $1.6 billion in March.
While MinDai TianXia does not have a net outflow, the net inflow between May and June has dropped off a cliff, severely decreasing.
In a survey done by data firms, 30% of investors said they would continue to invest in online lending, but only after regulation has been improved.
Another 20% said they no longer planned to invest in online lending, but instead switch to digital currencies.
Using this ratio, then in June there will be at least $2.2 billion in net inflows to the cryptocurrency market.
In addition, practitioners have been fleeing the online lending industry, leading to a massive transformation in demographics.
“Before, my friends were doing P2P, but now if they aren’t doing blockchain, then they are speculating coin prices.” an anonymous online lending businessman confesses; before you could see a lot online lending news within your circle of friends, but now when you look, it is mostly blockchain news.
“Since the beginning of the year, there have been constant calls from companies dealing with blockchain or cryptocurrency inviting me to interview.” an anonymous operational staff member of an online financial platform is quoted as saying.

The operations and market personnel in the online lending industry are highly sought after in the blockchain industry.
“The industries both have elements of wealth management, and have a lot of commonalities from the perspective of operations and market promotions, so we are poaching people from the online lending industry.” an anonymous HR personnel at a blockchain company states. They have already poached several senior executives.
The online lending industry is currently becoming the biggest reserve of human talent available to the blockchain industry.
“The recent wave of departures if very noticeable, with nearly 30% of online lending practitioners joining the cryptocurrency sector.“ says Lisa, a headhunter who specializes in online finance.
On the other hand, many P2P companies that have left the scene have also made great efforts to enter the digital currency field.
“A lot of P2P companies are created by real estate groups from Wenzhou or local rich owners. After they leave the P2P sector, they start to invest in or speculate on coin prices” says an anonymous P2P platform founder.
It is evident that many practitioners, platforms, and funds have started to collectively shift from P2P to cryptocurrency.


03 Where is the Road?
All money flows towards the highest possible yield.
There is currently a migration of money from P2P to cryptocurrency.
And the whole industry is starting to suffer from a shortage of assets.
A-Shares are trending downward, Hong Kong stocks are weak, and bank earnings are low, so many investors feel that their investment channels are very limited.
If the trade war between China and the US becomes more intense, then everyone’s risk aversion will undoubtedly get worse.
Last August, when the North Korean nuclear crisis escalated, South Korean conglomerates flooded into the cryptocurrency market.
At the time, the price of Ether rose 67% in two weeks, pushing it close to $300.
Back in June 2016, England formally decided to leave the European Union through a “Brexit referendum”.
Bitcoin rose 25% the same day, reaching a price of $714.
Some believe Bitcoin has a similar safe-haven quality to gold. The financial market uncertainty caused by Brexit has let people to choose Bitcoin.

While cryptocurrencies are slowly emerging as a new haven asset, it is not enough to prove that the transition from online lending is a wise choice.
“It may being jumping from the tiger’s den into the wolf’s den.” states Mr. Qian, “You need to pay tuition to get into this business.”
The unspoken rules and operations in this field are extremely complex. New, unfamiliar users metaphorically face a bloody battlefield.
And the P2P giants that have entered the field could become the next wave of victims.
“These people can’t play the coin market; they will be frisked down the moment they enter” states an anonymous person who helps P2P bosses enter the cryptocurrency market. In this sector, P2P bosses are still too naive.
The cryptocurrency market has not been friendly and welcoming towards the incoming funds, instead resisting it with everything they have.

Note:
Looking back at the online lending industry, it is not all doom and gloom.
An industry’s upward and downward trends are inevitable, as some leave, some will stay.
Some practitioners believe after this wave of closures, the remaining people will be the elite.


submitted by BUSD_official to u/BUSD_official [link] [comments]

Beer money site reviews [Part I]

So, now that I have quite a bit of free time this night, I thought I would make a guide on making money online, sites for making them and some tips and tricks. This is just for hopefully giving some people ideas and sites they haven´t heard of. These are fast reviews of the sites, so there are not going to be any in depth analysis of the sites, but I still hope you enjoy. So, lets start:
CashCrate/ Non-Ref
I really like this site. It gives you a ton of money if you are willing to spend some money on doing tasks and offers. The site also has some paid offers that are easy to do and have huge amount of money you get (compared to other sites)
Pros:
Cons:
Summary: If you are an US citizen who owns a credit card, this site can make you earn lots of money in one month. I suggest it heavily.
Get-Paid/ Non-Ref
This site is really interesting. It awards you for using time on this site, by unlocking new features when you level up by using an "Experience" system. The site also has some features that you do not see on other sites like this. For example, they have a part called "Business Cards", where you are shown a business card and you write down the details of it.
Pros:
Cons:
Summary: This is the CashCrate of Europe. This site offers you more goodies than CashCrate if you are living outside of US and has a really low minimum pay out compared to CashCrate
Slicethepie/ Non-Ref
From all the sites on internet that pay you cash, this is my favorite. It brings you a great income for only using it ten to twenty minutes per day. The site is simple to use and improves your ability to do reviews. If it gets requested, I can also make a guide on how to make the most profitable reviews, but that is not for today
Pros:
Cons:
Summary: This is a great site if you still have a few minutes daily that you are able to sacrifice. The site has been a good success for me, and I think that if you just have a bit of effort, it will be for you too.
Gambit/ Non-Ref
This site is really well made. Basically, the system works like this. You make a bid, you play a game and if you win you get money. It has great games like Bitnopoly or Dots & Boxes, which are a great, fun way to spend your time if you happen to have some
Pros:
Cons
Summary: This site is just for fun. The reason you really don´t make much money out of this is that you need to get lucky to win in most of the games. But, if you are really good at games like Backgammon or Dots & Boxes, you might be able to get some money out of this by bidding high
BitcoinGet/ Non-Ref
This Bitcoin site is the most profitable site (leave a comment if I am wrong) to get Bitcoins there is. This is practically the Get-Paid where they pay you with Bitcoins. I like this site, since I have just recently started to get more in to the Bitcoins and I am starting to gather some Bitcoins to my wallet.
Pros
Cons:
Summary: If you want a source of Bitcoins, I suggest this heavily. I am not sure, but I think that people who live in US are having more diversity in the site, but still, you can do some money in this site. So is this site worth it? Up to you and your desire for Bitcoins.
Well, that is it for this part, I will do another one soon, but until then, I wish you good luck in making beer money, and merry, merry Christmas!
submitted by VaivainenSiili to beermoney [link] [comments]

NXT is Bitcoin of the Future: In both good and bad ways.

I've been intently following the development of NXT by reading as much as I can about it and following along with the developers discussions over at bitcointalk.org's mega-thread.
Nxt stands out above most other "alternative" digital currencies, mainly because it's not a clone, or "fork" of bitcoin. There are only a few "coins" out there right now that can make this claim. I put the word 'coin' in quotes because another thing that most of the Bitcoin 2.0 currencies have in common is that they tend to shy away from being called coins and put a lot of focus on adding totally new features to what Bitcoin does. They usually like to be referred to as ecosystems, and will often correct you if you refer to their platform as merely a "coin".
The ecosystems who are emerging most prominently include Etherium, Master Coin, Colored Coins, Emunie, Ripple, Nxt and Counterparty.
Out of all the emerging ecosystems, I've decided that Nxt is the one I feel has the most potential. Part of this was getting a bit "suckered in" by all of the existing marketing that made claims that Nxt has "instant transactions" (you only need to look to the right hand side of this page to see an example of this), only to find out that this particular feature has not yet been implemented and the common claims of 1000 transactions per second is possibly unattainable.
Although I felt like I got hit with a classic "Bait and Switch", being that crypto is the new wild west and caveat emptor is very much in effect, I didn't take it too personally. A lot of the marketing is disjointed and uncentralized ( the developers are actually proud to say Nxt has decentralized development) so it's hard to blame any one person for making these claims a bit prematurely.
What's kept me from dumping all my Nxt in disgust over being "lied" to, was the fact the "switch" that I took the "bait" for was actually pretty compelling in itself. This being the upcoming "decentralized asset exchange" which I think has a lot of potential, at least to make my investment grow even if I personally am not interested in creating my very own coin or starting an IPO any time soon (I'm just a shameless and unabashed speculator who would like to make a profit on my holdings-which makes me a bit of a pariah over at bitcointalk.org). The AE goes live sometime in April so I'm holding or HODLING as the wacky crew over at bitcointalk likes to say until I see what happens with the price.
What a lot of people say about Nxt is that it's like "looking at Bitcoin in the future" which it kind of is. Currently you do have to install java and use batch files to get it running, but one click installers are around the corner. Once you do get it up and running though, even the basic client is very much easier to understand and use than Bitcoin is. You only have to manage one address, the interface is right in your web browser (but run locally so no SSL needed) and sending and receiving Nxt is about as close to sending an email as I've seen yet.
Nxt's transaction speeds have been faster than Bitcoins, though I can't say how much of this is due to having a much smaller network or not. You also have to wait for ten confirmations vs. Bitcoin's six to be absolutely sure there are no double-spends so it's really hard to say if Nxt is a lot faster than Bitcoin....yet.
One of the lead developers claims to be working on implementing "transparent Forging" as we speak, which he says will get Nxt to about 10 TPS at first, then 100 and finally 1000 TPS which is about as fast as a Visa Transaction. All in all I agree with the assessment that using Nxt is like using the Bitcoin of the Future.
Another great thing about Nxt is that it's 100% Proof-Of-Stake, meaning Nxt is not "mined" like bitcoin is. The coins have all already been created from the genesis block and this is another way using Nxt is a lot like using Future Bitcoin, because one day all the BTC will have been mined and the "miners" will have to exist on transaction fees alone. Using Nxt, we get a little peek into the future of what that day might be like because the "forgers", who protect the network and verify transactions are rewarded in the same way.
Since nxt has a lot smaller network, it's still hard to say what kinds of rewards 'forgers" might receive for their efforts if and when Nxt becomes more popular. As of right now, Forging is pretty much an act of altruism for all but the largest stakeholders. Also,the transaction fee is currently a ridiculous sum of 1 Nxt, which will either be changed to .01 nxt or .1 nxt in the near future depending which developer or community member at bitcointalk.org you ask. All I know is that it's getting changed to either .1 or .01
The common response is that Forgers will receive about 1% annual return on their holdings and that this is reasonable since there's no expensive, electricity hungry mining equipment involved. You can forge using a cell phone.
One potential problem I've been concerned about with that approach is that .01 Nxt or .1 Nxt might be a reasonable fee right now, since it's trading at about .04 cents each, but what if the price rises unexpectedly by any considerable amount? Seems to me that nxt users will be simultaneously rewarded and punished for holding Nxt and using the system as the fee for using it rises right along with the price. Bitcoin and others also use static fees, but those fees are kept extremely low so the price would have to go up a ridiculous amount for a price rise to have a negative affect on actual trading. With Nxt, even a price rise to $50.00 USD per Nxt would mean a sudden fee of $5.00 USD or .50 cents depending on where they put the decimal.
Nxt's fees in my opinion will be far too close to the value of the main unit for sudden price spike not to potentially have a negative affect on the ecosystem itself. This appears to be one of the consequences of the need to reward miners/forgers with transaction fees alone. Will Bitcoin have a similar problem in the future? Any significant price rise in the asset itself might put a negative pressure on trading as people become unwilling or reluctant to pay the now more expensive fee.
I've been told by the developers that if the price rises that much they will just lower the fee by updating the software, but as we all know, crypto-currency can be very volatile. Do we really want to live in a word where we have to update our clients again and again as the price rises and falls, often rapidly and drastically? Are we to just trust that they will do this quickly enough to avoid the system grinding to a halt or at least slowing to a crawl? The developers already have enough trouble agreeing on what the current fee will be lowered to. How are we to expect them to react quickly and correctly in a crisis while value collapses? I don't even want to go into how one of the developers told me that a drastic price rise will never happen. It's just too depressing. To my mind, programming is the art of anticipating the unexpected and planning for it and not just "crossing bridges when you come to them".
As I've been able to log into the test version of the Asset Exchange I've noticed several things about the system that concern me and most of these things involve these same fees.
If you don't know what a decentralized exchange is, it's basically a trading platform where you can trade a lot of different things without having to sign up with a centralized exchange like Bitstamp or BTC-E. You'll be able to trade right there in NXt's 'ecosystem".
One thing I noticed is that while it's a cool system, there's a fee to do almost anything in it. There's a fee to send, there's a (very large 1000 Nxt) fee to create an asset and worst of all there's a fee to PLACE a buy or sell order on the asset exchange.
Most centralized exchanges like Bitstamp also charge a fee to EXECUTE an order, but NO exchange that I know of charges you a fee just for casting your line into the water.
I'm no expert day trader, but one thing I do know is that traders like to use the order book in an exchange strategically with orders that might not get executed. Some do it to take advantage of potential price spikes or sudden dips they might miss, while others use intimidatingly large sell and buy "walls" designed to inhibit or encourage trading to a desired effect, which they promptly cancel as soon as the action gets too close to actually executing their order.
I've never been able to afford a wall myself, but I have put in a ridiculously high or low limit order in Bitstamp just in case the BTC price spikes or drops rapidly and unexpectedly. Usually my gambit fails and the price moves away from my bid to an impossible range so I cancel the whole thing. In Nxt, I would be charged a fee for this. I'm not sure if this is a deal breaker for me, but I have a strong feeling it might be for many traders considering using Nxt's AE. I can also imagine a fluctuating fee being a pretty big headache for bot programmers trying to figure out how to obtain profit with the slimmest possible margins.
Of course someone who can put up a 2 Million dollar wall can afford paying these fees, but I would hazard a good guess that for many of these traders, who I imagine to have colorful & opinionated personalities, having to pay a fee to merely place an order that they never plan to execute will become a matter of principal and they will refuse to use the platform on this sort of thing alone.
I have tried to bring this up with the developers who congregate at bitcointalk.org as a potential problem for future traders, but I've been told that Nxt needs to charge these fees so that Forgers who protect the network can be compensated. My retort is that if participation is too low because the fees are too high that no one will be rewarded, but so far my concerns do not seem to be shared.
In short, the one drawback I am starting to realize with Proof-Of_Stake systems is that since no one is creating new coins with mining, that the actual stake-holders need to be incentivised to run open nodes (Forging) so the network is secured and transactions are verified quickly. If the incentives are too small, not enough people will Forge and the entire system is endangered and fees will have to be raised til motivation exists. This is something Bitcoin users will have to deal with in the future, when all the coins have been created and it is something Nxt users will have to deal with right now.
submitted by BrianNowhere to NXT [link] [comments]

General thought on the market, the future is past. If I may offer a logical, deep-throated, hard to swallow pill opinion.

--I made this in a private FB group, so some verbage might be off--
What are the cases for owning crypto right now? I still own some, just on a FOMO [fear of missing out] basis, but that's my 10% hopeful gamble. Notice the word I just used : gamble. Psychological intervention on my own reverb. I'm 90% out. Has anyones thoughts changed on how the market (general population/psychology) treats crypto? The market is broke. Okex is now manipulating prices (drove Bitcoin down to $4000 on futures contract when other exchanges were around $8000 - just so it could fuck with legit 'stock like' Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin Futures). Bitfinex is trying to relocate [read my posts in December about Bitfinex].
The Bitcoin system was built because the banking system couldn't be trusted, specifically. (2008) The "owners" of Bitcoin are the exchanges. Decentralization or "no regluations" has fucked Bitcoin. So, long term, no.
I found an old FUD [fear uncertainty doubt] post I made on 12-28, I saw the market collapsing so I began cashing out. The H0DLer's gambit and psychology was a human vulnerability, that one could profit on. Mr. Robot style. This human vulnerability I've seen in stocks like $AMD. A cult like following. There is reward, and then theres also risk. Cash out, as I've made the case and warnings multiple times before here, and elsewhere.
No, Ripple is not going to $5.00 heres why. Every, single, crypto, currency, currently trading is absolutely tainted by fraud and the 'index' there in that it relies itself upon Bitcoin. You cannot fund Ripple, without Bitcoin. Exchanges pumped/printed worthless Bitcoin in the excess of billions on UPWARD momentum only. Imagine, one person, spending $2B in December on Bitcoin - all at once. That's basically what happened. Except it wasn't a person, it was the worlds largest exchange by volume -- Bitfinex [volume which was manipulated, also - ever since being served a supoena by SEC in January, Bitfinex has stopped 'pumping' and the price is now 70% off from all time highs]. Now these exchanges are trying to avoid basically, what amounts to warrants, by relocating from China to Switzerland. That's not alarming.
Also - ASIC miners being made for Eth now. This war of running networks, mining the shit out of them with maximum computattional power is going to screw with Eth prices, as other miners gets out and it becomes 'centralized' mining like with Bitcoin. The power generation, and so on.. regulations will come in that form. Its getting crazy. Thoughts on that?
Sorry but I see Bitcoin going to $4000 in the short-term. Long term, read above, and also abide by historical rules and know what bubbles are. In January, everyone said HOLD. It's "seasonal" - "EVERY January this happens". You've had how many years of historical indices to predict a massive market shift and predictability of voltaility, before unrelied upon by a microscope of regulations? Ok.
Like I stated before, the market is illiquid and will forever be, because certain exchanges manipulated the market and literally, forever have changed the price and future history of the value. I have posted about this a ton. Can that system ever be trusted again? Do you see the huge price swings going on?
There are many more regulations to come. If not an outright ban. Does anything surprise us anymore? Seriously. I think that "oh shit, were living in an Orwellian state now" --thanks Facebook is quite awakening. What surprises us anymore? It further increases FUD, because anything is possible. Read 1984. Were there, except the novel should have been called 2018.
Cheers.
submitted by infectedmethod to btc [link] [comments]

Can the price of bitcoin ever be as easily controlled as the price of gold/silver has been

I watched this, this morning:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dLlVEmnzO0
And though I've never paid very close attention to the precious-metals market, it is clear to me that it is a controlled market at the highest levels.
Paper gold has been inflated massively, apparently there is 240 times more paper gold than physical gold, and this fact is used to hold down the price of gold. Central banks also hold gold and can sell any time. Ostensibly to protect the value of their fiat currencies. One could argue the entire reason the IMF exists is primarily to defend fiat currency value.
But to do this, they had to use this extraordinary measure of paper gold, and to demoralize the market for gold entirely.
But compare that situation with today's top article:
http://bravenewcoin.com/news/imf-unable-to-supply-the-currency-needed-to-counter-speculative-attack-using-bitcoin/
The powers that be would find it difficult to obtain enough bitcoin to defend their fiat currencies should people begin leaving fiat and draining into bitcoin.
In fact, one of the only ways they could possibly defend themselves would be to seize bitcoin from existing holders. And even that would be very difficult for them to do, so the best way for them to do it would actually be for them to find Satoshi Nakamoto and take his bitcoin.
I wouldn't put it past them to try very hard to do so. And perhaps this is why Satoshi took such extreme lengths to remain anonymous. We should hope the government never gets their hands on his coin, it would be the ultimate prize in the currency-wars to come. Whatever nation can control his coin could be the sole fiat currency capable of defending their own fiat value from speculative attack by bitcoin-holders.
Sounds like a good premise for a novel, actually.
But to the point, will there arise a means of the government to manipulate the price of bitcoin?
Luckily, the status-quo bias of the statists allowed bitcoin to get where it has gotten. They ignored it because they assumed it would inevitably fail on their own. Now that that assumption has been largely destroyed in their minds by its continual success we then saw them all take a second look at it and decide that the blockchain technology behind it was revolutionary and valuable and disruptive, and they've been jumping on board to figure out how they can use the blockchain concept itself, divorced from bitcoin.
So perhaps that is their current play, try to blunt the impact of bitcoin by creating their own blockchain services. They haven't quite figured out that this is unlikely to work just yet. And that in the process they've implicitly given the nod to bitcoin itself. So it's a gambit on their part; can they build some blockchain alternative fast enough to redirect the freight train off the bitcoin-rails and into their own pocket.
Normally they would just use the law to do so, take a few key politicians out to dinner, a few minor campaign donations, etc., and the deal is done. But bitcoin, being a decentralized application does not respond to legal incentives in the same way.
The very fact of them using the blockchain technology makes it unlikely that they will pursue trying to outlaw blockchain technology itself.
So it looks like they are caught in a catch-22. They want to ward off bitcoin, but they're trying to do so by using the underlying technology, which only strengthens bitcoin.
So what tool do they have to stop bitcoin? They cannot create "paper bitcoin" in the same way they controlled the gold market, or can they? I don't see how.
Unless they use the Lightning Network, or perhaps some of the exchanges. There's opportunity in such exchanges or the LN to sell more bitcoin that exists, since it is all just a digital record. But they would have to get in bed with these companies.
If a nationally-sponsored bitcoin exchange opened, one that could never go bankrupt in fiat terms (since they can always print more fiat), they might be able to pull off such a scam, basically having lots of people trust them to hold their bitcoin and do most of their transactions there.
It would become a fractional-reserve of bitcoin.
But such an outcome also implies further acceptance of bitcoin to the extreme. So again, it becomes a major gambit. Will people prefer holding real-bitcoin versus using these national exchanges?
Or will this simply force the nation-state to create fiat-based crypto-currencies with which they can create exchanges that integrated with the bitcoin-blockchain. That implies world-wide acceptance of bitcoin to the extreme, at the highest levels.
submitted by Anen-o-me to Anarcho_Capitalism [link] [comments]

If I may extend a logical, deep-throated, hard to swallow pill opinion.

--I made this in a private FB group, so some verbage might be off--
What are the cases for owning crypto right now? I still own some, just on a FOMO [fear of missing out] basis, but that's my 10% hopeful gamble. Notice the word I just used : gamble. Psychological intervention on my own reverb. I'm 90% out. Has anyones thoughts changed on how the market (general population/psychology) treats crypto? The market is broke. Okex is now manipulating prices (drove Bitcoin down to $4000 on futures contract when other exchanges were around $8000 - just so it could fuck with legit 'stock like' Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin Futures). Bitfinex is trying to relocate [read my posts in December about Bitfinex].
The Bitcoin system was built because the banking system couldn't be trusted, specifically. (2008) The "owners" of Bitcoin are the exchanges. Decentralization or "no regluations" has fucked Bitcoin. So, long term, no.
I found an old FUD [fear uncertainty doubt] post I made on 12-28, I saw the market collapsing so I began cashing out. The H0DLer's gambit and psychology was a human vulnerability, that one could profit on. Mr. Robot style. This human vulnerability I've seen in stocks like $AMD. A cult like following. There is reward, and then theres also risk. Cash out, as I've made the case and warnings multiple times before here, and elsewhere.
No, Ripple is not going to $5.00 heres why. Every, single, crypto, currency, currently trading is absolutely tainted by fraud and the 'index' there in that it relies itself upon Bitcoin. You cannot fund Ripple, without Bitcoin. Exchanges pumped/printed worthless Bitcoin in the excess of billions on UPWARD momentum only. Imagine, one person, spending $2B in December on Bitcoin - all at once. That's basically what happened. Except it wasn't a person, it was the worlds largest exchange by volume -- Bitfinex [volume which was manipulated, also - ever since being served a supoena by SEC in January, Bitfinex has stopped 'pumping' and the price is now 70% off from all time highs]. Now these exchanges are trying to avoid basically, what amounts to warrants, by relocating from China to Switzerland. That's not alarming.
Also - ASIC miners being made for Eth now. This war of running networks, mining the shit out of them with maximum computattional power is going to screw with Eth prices, as other miners gets out and it becomes 'centralized' mining like with Bitcoin. The power generation, and so on.. regulations will come in that form. Its getting crazy. Thoughts on that?
Sorry but I see Bitcoin going to $4000 in the short-term. Long term, read above, and also abide by historical rules and know what bubbles are. In January, everyone said HOLD. It's "seasonal" - "EVERY January this happens". You've had how many years of historical indices to predict a massive market shift and predictability of voltaility, before unrelied upon by a microscope of regulations? Ok.
Like I stated before, the market is illiquid and will forever be, because certain exchanges manipulated the market and literally, forever have changed the price and future history of the value. I have posted about this a ton. Can that system ever be trusted again? Do you see the huge price swings going on?
There are many more regulations to come. If not an outright ban. Does anything surprise us anymore? Seriously. I think that "oh shit, were living in an Orwellian state now" --thanks Facebook is quite awakening. What surprises us anymore? It further increases FUD, because anything is possible. Read 1984. Were there, except the novel should have been called 2018.
Cheers.
submitted by infectedmethod to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

What is 'decentralized' anyways? How many full nodes should the network actually have?

People often reference the ethereal but holy tenant of Bitcoin: Decentralization. But, nobody really has a clear definition of what that actually means. The way I see it, there are many factors that contribute to centralization, or as I like to call it - a decision bottleneck. We can look at miners, exchanges, full node count, developers with commit access - all of these things and more are factors that lead to disproportionate say in the hands of 'too few', whatever that magic number actually is.
But I want to specifically focus on full nodes here, because I often see the complaint that full node count has dropped dramatically touted as a sign that the Bitcoin sky is falling. Is it really though?
I've seen opinions from the 'experts' running the gambit from "literally everyone should be able to run a full node" to "the network would probably work just fine with a dozen full nodes". Obviously, these are mutually exclusive positions to hold. The vision of Bitcoin cannot follow both at once. We are going to have to choose what 'acceptable' decentralization actually is, if only to know when we should be concerned. Without a concrete metric to measure our proposals against, how will we ever make the engineering tradeoffs that need to occur? Will it simply be the loudest point prevails? That doesn't sound like a very good way to solve technical problems to me.
My thought: full nodes need not be run by every end user. In fact, regular end users are extremely unlikely to be targets of SPV attacks - they simply don't move enough money around to make attacks worthwhile. Someone moving many BTC certainly would do well to run a full node, because they're dealing with more money. But the average guy who has a few BTC and uses it to buy coffee with foldapp? The risk just isn't a huge deal.
So right now the cost is fairly low to run a full node. Any user with a decent internet connection and a modern computer can run one, as I do. Will that always be the case? No. But, I think we'll be okay as long as the Bitcoin economy grows.
As people are moving more and more value, and as businesses handle more and more value, those businesses will have incentives to run full nodes for the security it provides. Even if regular consumers have little to no reason to run a full node, in a healthy ecosystem that spans the globe and contains millions of bitcoin-accepting businesses, we'll be more than decentralized enough should even a small fraction of them opt to run a full node.
So I think a good metric to gauge health of the full node space is whether a bitcoin business can easily run a full node in house.
What are your thoughts? Am I off the mark? Are we doomed if you can't run a node on a toaster? Are we doomed if we can?
submitted by E7ernal to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Games and Theory: Cognitive biases Part 5.

This being the 5th such post, I think I might start a conversational practical where we can test what we have learned in context. I'm still thinking of how best to implement such a practical it will likely be on the lines of taking up a "hot topic" and representing both sides of the argument in a convincing manner. Ideas would be welcomed.
OK intro done. Onward and Forward!
The conjunction fallacy is a formal fallacy that occurs when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one. The most often-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman:
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
Which is more probable?
  1. Linda is a bank teller.
  2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
The majority of those asked chose option 2. However the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone.
This is a perfect example of how to convince someone of something with out lying, in fact telling them accurate information in advance about the questions target would often be deemed helpful, though it will influence their choice in the question, even illogically so. Sometimes you won't have to even ask the question. If necessary you could perpetuate false information but you need to articulate the situation that a) they can't prove it wrong or b) shouldn't know in the first place.
  1. The regional manager of a company is coming to the local branch today
  2. The regional manager is wearing a suit and wine shirt, and is coming in as a mystery shoppecustomer.
  3. As its supposed to be a secret assessment they shouldn't know
  4. You appear in a suit and wine shirt, get special treatment of which they aren't supposed to give, because they think you are someone you are not.
Having intimate knowledge of corporate structure, is obviously beneficial in such a ruse, having the ability to name drop other local managers it may be a case of just calling a head saying your "xyz" from "abc" and that "the regional manager was just in and he is heading your way"
In regards to the practical examples of the base of the bias, that's just a case of painting your opponent with a brush to undermine their side of the discussion. We see this at a political level around election time a lot.
A certain state of mind wherein high values and high likelihoods are overestimated while low values and low likelihoods are underestimated.
It is an effect of rounding, where people tend to prefer information in more simple details, much like when you may turn your audio settings to 45 or 50 but never 47 whole round numbers are en mass more preferable. In this instance something like .0001% = never, and something like 97% or 99% = always, for instance believing a world ending comet strike is impossible because its unlikely.
Combined with the Base rate fallacy and the Availability heuristic fallacy which can cognitively shift an unlikely event into the mind set of a regular event, it will shift an unlikely event into an "always" event. Catholic priests being child molesters is a perfect example. Most anyone you will ask will say that "all catholic priests are child molesters" however statistically person per person catholic priests are less likely to be child molesters then the average person so far as to say statically they are unlikely to be child molesters.
It is equally possible, by paving the way with the correct cogitative biases in the correct order to invert a 1/100 chance of occurrence in someone's mind to a 99/100 chance and eventually a 100% matter of fact occurrence, pick the right person and they will take it up as a cause and perpetuate the idea for you. Regardless of the what and why of it, if someone unknowingly perpetuates your agenda due to intentional social engineering we call these people "proxies"
In computer networks, a proxy server is a server that acts as an intermediary for requests from clients seeking resources from other servers.
In Social Engineering, a Proxy is an involuntary person that acts as in intermediary for you or your accomplices seeking to to either upstream or downstream information to or from a target.
If someone is knowingly in on "IT" what ever it may be they are an accomplice, but much like an involuntary botnet where by peoples computers are hi-jacked for an alternate agenda than the owners use, say generating bitcoins, d-dosing servers and used against their will. If you hi-jack someone's thought processes and skew their perception and understanding alter what they believe to further an extended goal they are a proxy. Examples of proxies may include...
The last one I mentioned, we saw a lot of during the occupy movement, with out clear leadership people could turn up with a group of friends be active in the camp for a week and then declare themselves leader new people lacking understanding would assume this to be true because enough people said it, then the camp would be dragged into supporting some alternate agenda, it happened to a lot of camps and thus made the entire movement look direction less. Being unwillingly dragged into an agenda they didn't support also functioned as an exit gate, causing standing dedicated members to leave the camps, removing the opposition to the "usurpers" agenda. I was lucky enough to be positioned to observe this happening individually on a global scale.
The processes of forwarding or gathering information through a social network of at least 2 people. For instance I submit an idea to you and you perpetuate it to your friend, that is an upstream. Down streaming would be me gathering information about your friends from you. The Upstream or Downstream can be as long as you want but due to Chinese whispers and loss of message integrity it can be tricky and require a level of talent to perpetuate an idea beyond 2 degrees. it is said that everyone in the world is within 6 degrees of each other of contact from each other, so theoretically you could indirectly social engineer anyone on the planet by indirect propagation of ideas, maintain data integrity, while keeping the various proxies unconscious of their actions is without question my unfinished masterwork, and as its based on 6 degrees of separation, It will be called "6 degrees of control" it will likely be my magnum opus. I felt it was necessary to make a point about it rather than just casually brushing over it. it may be practically impossible but it is theoretically possible and pushing it to its practical limits will likely be something that will take me to my end. Here is an instance of how multiple degrees of up streaming via proxies might work.
Although that might sound simple enough, social engineering requires a lot of precision and as your message spreads like branches on a tree, it gets diluted and inaccurate, this can be cured by exit gates to an extent but full and detailed information about every possible and potential link in in the chain would need to be gathered, and a game tree for said links be plotted out, The work would be immense and a computer wouldn't have the intuition to carry it out. I heard tell that palantir were working on something for some American 3 letter agency but I can't dig up anything about that to link to, so maybe that's not public knowledge.
Anyway I've once again gone miles off topic.
A contrast effect is the enhancement or diminishment, relative to normal, of perception, cognition or related performance as a result of successive (immediately previous) or simultaneous exposure to a stimulus of lesser or greater value in the same dimension.
This is pretty simple, if you know any annoying person who always tries to one up your story every time, the reason you feel annoyed is his one upping you doesn't comparative make his story better, but your one less notable. Essentially undermining what you have to say. Equally if you were in a fight with your significant other and one party calls the other out on say "not washing dishes" the 2nd party might highlight that the first party didn't do "insert other chore here" in an effort to undermine the importance of the supposed issue causing conflict how ever this often has a backfire effect in that while it does undermine the nature if the initial point presented, it pisses off the first person because the point they initially made was "one upped" and discredited and they feel the same slight as one would do if they tried to tell a story just to have it bested, as tempers are already flaring in a heated discussion this leads to further irrational behavior. <--- that's worth noting next time you have a disagreement with your SO, you can maybe more strategically disagree with them postpone further escalation and irrational behaviour, and turn an irrational argument into a logical discussion.
I'm sure many of you would like to say you are a victim of this one :-P . The curse of knowledge is a cognitive bias that leads better-informed parties to find it extremely difficult to think about problems from the perspective of lesser-informed parties.
If you have ever tried to teach a 50yr + person about computers this is it right here, you can't even comprehend the basic stuff they don't understand because its intuitive to you, words you might use to describe what to do and how to do it, are words out side the lexicon of the person you are talking to you may as well be explaining to a Japanese person what the words "the" and "is" mean.
This is best exploited when playing dumb, people a) like to feel intellectually superior and it strokes their ego to help others and b) being slow and "dumb" makes people impatient and they will often do things for you because its easier than explaining things to you. If you ever told an older person to get off the computer and just do something for them rather then explain "how to" this is a perfect example.
In a social engineering capacity, having someone else do work for you and and be impatient with you, but be still feeling good because of the ego bonus can be very beneficial. I have gotten through passport control and luggage check on more than once occasion in by doing this sort of thing which many would agree are pretty strict security check points. admittedly I am a white male and I wasn't doing anything illegal it was more to see if I could so failure for me was going to the back of the queue. however I have yet to meet an apathetic impatient person who wants to deal with an incompetent, ignorant, painfully innocent, and polite person twice.
This is a solid one to remember for your day to day conversations or anything work related. the decoy effect (or asymmetric dominance effect) is the phenomenon whereby consumers will tend to have a specific change in preference between two options when also presented with a third option that is asymmetrically dominated. An option is asymmetrically dominated when it is inferior in all respects to one option; but, in comparison to the other option, it is inferior in some respects and superior in others. In other words, in terms of specific attributes determining preferability, it is completely dominated by (i.e., inferior to) one option and only partially dominated by the other. When the asymmetrically dominated option is present, a higher percentage of consumers will prefer the dominating option than when the asymmetrically dominated option is absent. The asymmetrically dominated option is therefore a decoy serving to increase preference for the dominating option.
If you are say competing in work with an idea with a work colleague or maybe socially as a host for a social engagement, and your idea competes with a 2nd idea, you could submit a 3rd idea whose sole purpose is to make your initial idea look better.
say you are going back to someone's place after the bar for drinks, you don't want to drive afterwards or have to go anywhere so it suits you to stay in bed and sleep when everyone leaves. You submit your option, you have better home entertainment and are more centrally located so its easier for people to get home there after, but you are further away where as your opponents option is closer, you then raise the idea of someone else's house which is as close as option 2 but in your direction, slightly more centrally located but not as good and lacks sufficient home entertainment. every point raised as a "con" to the 3rd point will nearly be a direct Pro in regards to yours, and by making people think about it them selves rather than saying it to them it is inducted into their thought process.
I think that's it for today, as usual I'll edit this afterwards when I see how readable it is, questions welcomed and encouraged, also if you have suggestions, topics you want me to address or content you want me to expand on, please don't be afraid to ask if I get no feedback I may as well just be soap boxing on a street corner like a weirdo.
submitted by ridik_ulass to gamesandtheory [link] [comments]

Solution: Blockchain Voting-- a secure electronic voting framework that we needed yesterday. Voting fraud happens because of 2 things: a) CorruptGov runs elections, b) Inconsistency in voting systems act as 'plausible deniability'.

TL;DR:
These guys claim we're ready for it now, for the 2016 election:
Background
Our government has cheated elections several times and they will continue to cheat and steal the vote so long as we can blame tallies on little old ladies counting the ballots; disenfranchised black people in florida; hacking; "lost" absentee ballots (or suddenly 'found' absentee ballots); diebold voting machines (or whatever they call themselves now); misreporting from the media; supreme court decisions that were wrong (gore v bush) because it was a politically-imbalanced cabinet at the time; and finally the existance of a theivery corporation's ploy called the electoral college as a means to overrule any deep-state-disapproved, democratically-elected republicanism.
These inconsistencies in our voting systems allow a corrupt government to 'get away with it', because 'problems' act as a 'plausible deniability' gambit for fraud. While the Spectacle spins off countless hours of news media coverage over the "possibility of fraud" and election scandals, talking bobble heads gobble on with ineffectual nonsense to a captive audience with the sole intention of selling pharma medications that don't work, food that's not fit to eat, and cars we can't afford. In other words, controversy is commodified: we'll be taking your money, kthanxbye.
Steal elections. 'lections. Make money, money. Steal elections 'lections. Make the money money.
Somewhere in there is a hit rap song.
Enter Blockchain Voting
It's important to enumerate all those problems, not as a whiny rant, but to demonstrate how Bitcoin technology can absolutely free us from these problems and end all controversies, so that we can get back to the task we once had of making this world a freer, better place for all humans everywhere (which is--to my mind--the core assumption of american exceptionalism).
Blockchain
The *Blockchain is an electronic, cryptographic public ledger used in bitcoin to track all transactions that have ever happened. It's used as parity check to prevent double spending (similar to the 90s era ecommerce problem of "click only once"). Anyone using bitcoin has a copy of every transaction that has ever been made. This means that every bitcoin user is part of one giant virtual bitcoin based bank with direct access to the bank's database of transactions. Think about how powerful that is.
It also means that the idea that bitcoin is anonymous that is commonly held (and propagandized by the main stream media as 'a money technology that enables crime') is simply false--its only semi anonymous. This means that bitcoin transactions are all traceable. This is why if you want anonymity, you use an online proxy service to create temporary bitcoin addresses to anonymize yourself, but this only protects you by hiding behind the service itself. There is soon to be a darkweb version of this service which will be a tor hidden service that will not be answerable to any government, and that will ensure true anonymity.
The blockchain is a powerful tool, and people are utilizing the metadata aspect of the blockchain in several creative ways. One in particular is in creating a secure electronic voting framework
These guys claim we're ready for it now, for the 2016 election:
Colors
Bitcoin can create this framework in many ways; but I believe most popularly it would use an exploitation of bitcoin' 'colored coins', 'tagging' coins with a form of metadata. Such as blue or red; business or personal; savings or dailyexpenditures; Hillary or Trump. In the case of bitcoinvoting, the 'value' aspect of the coins would be irrelevant. So one would only have to solve bitcoin for a relatively small number of bitcoins. Given that the smallest unit in BTC is 0.00000001 BTC, only 2 BTC would be needed to enable this, giving each person 0.00000001 BTC; if you used 3-5 BTC, that would be enough for at least the next 100 yrs of voting, given the US population is currently around 318.9M, and less than that would be legal to vote
So in this scenario, casting a vote would entail spending 0.00000001 BTC of Bernie-colored coin or Trump colored coin, to a bitcoin address representing your county's ballot box (or a federal ballot box address). You have a copy of your transaction, so do they, and you have everyone elses's vote, and so do they.
Semi-Anonymity is implicit because bitcoin addresses are just numbers, although they are traceable. This can be resolved fairly easily by using a central server. People will complain and say "who runs the server"? With bitcoin, it doesn't matter... you still have a copy of your vote and can check it. It precludes changing your vote. It elminates this problem entirely.
The 'Registration process' would need to be figured out. It could be the case that 2 bitcoin systems are used, one that registers a voter and another that handles casting votes.
How it Fixes
  1. ) Tally -- blockchain public ledger allows anyone to count the votes -- Fixed!
  2. ) Government changes votes in the database -- blockchain ledger disallows -- Fixed!
  3. ) Voting machine problems -- it's all electronic, consistent with bitcoin voting. All you need is a computer, the open source voting system is security-audited by the public and runs off a CD as a diskless OS. You print a paper wallet and write your vote to it --- fraud = Fixed!
  4. ) Absentee ballots -- no longer exist. You can vote instantly from anywhere in the world -- Fixed!
  5. ) Misreporting from MSM -- can't happen anymore as anyone can call immediate bullshit with software designed to tally based on your blockchain -- Fixed!
  6. ) Supreme Court Decisions -- blockchain won't fix a bad decision from the SCOTUS -- NOT FIXED! Although the people will have perfect evidence to hold the court itself in contempt of court and hold a collective vote of no confidence calling for immediate, permanent disbarrment of all members of SCOTUS from any future government office. Or we shoot them dead.
  7. ) Electoral college -- blockchain won't fix this so long as we have a system that politically upholds a fraudulent misapplication of democracy like this. However it will amplify differences between the two, supporting a narrative that the electoral college is the "Establishment's" vote versus the "people's vote". So it's a NOT FIXED! However, I believe people would like the democracy enabled by blockchain voting that they'd run towards it and admonish the electoral college as perfect manifestation of deep state elitism.
Re: Item #3 above: yes, not everyone has a computer. So you would have to have voting places still, but they would be computer labs connected to the internet or libraries, or your friend's computer...any computer that can boot from CD or USB stick can become a voting machine. There is software that hash-checks the diskimage and writes a certified copy to your media; you boot to it and it turns off every device but monitor, mouse and internet...it connects to internet to check your registration; or you just send your registration and vote info and if you do it again, it will overrule the last vote or ignore it (a decision to make...should you be able to change your mind prior to the election day, by which all votes must be cast and beyond which they won't be counted...
submitted by 911bodysnatchers322 to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Basic Online Poker Strategy

Always remember to be careful when gambling bitcoins or playing at any online casino.
To develop a working poker strategy, it's crucial to understand the interaction between players, the odds, and the advantages of table position. There are many different poker games, but aside from some play differences, some strategies remain the same. To play successfully, you need to have a basic grasp of the odds and know what good and bad hands look like.
Position Strategy
An important factor in Texas Hold'em is your position at the table. The dealer is always the strongest player at the table because he is on the button and has the ability to bet last. The player who bets last has the most information, and therefore can make the most educated decision about how to continue in the course of the game play. The person to the right of the dealer, sometimes known as the "cutoff", potentially has more power than the dealer, because he could raise the bet and knock the dealer out of play, therefore positioning himself as the strongest player on the board. Players who are in early positions are considered the weakest because they have the least amount of information about the table, so they cannot make as much of an educated decision as the dealer.
Narrowing the field
Many players start out with the idea that to win big, a lot of players must be involved. Technically, this is true, but you're also far more likely to lose big. It's better to force out as many opponents as possible, leaving only a few people in play, and take many small pots - winning consistently is a better winning strategy over the long run than winning big. Keep your play tight in the early rounds - be conservative and watch the habits of the other players. You'll start to notice a pattern of aggressive play and big bluffs from some players, and once you've got a handle on it, you can use their style against them to take their chips. Pick your hands carefully and keep your play tight and conservative until you've got a read on the table or a really good hand. Then get aggressive. By varying your playing style, you can psyche many players into folding.
When to Raise
If you think you have the best hand, raise big. You'll scare weaker players in to folding, narrow the field, and raise the stakes, bet more bitcoins. If you have a made hand and don't need to draw any cards to win, raising may force players with drawing hands (that need cards to make a winning hand) to fold. Raise to bluff or semi-bluff. If you've got nothing but you think you can outmaneuver your opponents with a raise by making them think you've got a winning hand, give it a shot. It's a risk that may pay off. Even if your bluff is called, you may be able to improve on the draw. Raise to gain information. If you raise, your opponents have to raise, call, or fold. This can give you information about how strong their hands are. You may also get a check from your opponent on the next betting round, and with it the opportunity to improve your hand with a free card.
Going All In
Going all in just sounds so exciting, doesn't it? It's both the biggest payoff and the biggest risk, so don't do it unless you're sure you have the best hand, you've set up a very convincing bluff, or you have nothing to lose because your stack is short and you need to double up to stay in the action. If you've played tight and built a weak table image on purpose, an all in gambit may pay off big. Your opponents may be convinced that you wouldn't dare risk anything unless you have a winning hand.
When to Call
If you have an excellent hand but want to hide it to raise the stakes in later betting rounds, calling is a good move. It's a psychological move that may be considered almost a reverse-bluff. Calling is a neutral move that may give later positions more confidence to stay in the game and raise the pot. If you're on the button, you can close the betting action with a call. Another reason to call is when you have pretty good odds and want to stay in the game but limit potential losses. If you want to bluff later in the game, calls in the early rounds can camouflage your intentions and make your opponents think you've got a much better hand than you have.
Tells
Tells are involuntary reactions that are hard to avoid. The best poker players are those most sensitive to their opponents' tells. A tell might be any repetitive gesture, like touching the face, obsessively peeking at good/bad cards or chip stack, twitching of the eyebrows or darting of the eyes, or it might be a change in the timbre of the voice...anything that telegraphs anxiety or excitement. Professional players use tells to "read" their opponents' hands. There's no way to know what is in another player's hand, but if you can read the player's reaction and compare it to previous reactions, you can often accurately predict whether they have a good or bad hand and whether they are bluffing. Reading tells takes instinct, a great deal of concentration and a good memory.
One thing you should understand is that, while you're trying to read and psyche out your opponents, they are doing the same thing to you. Most players employ an "opposite strategy" by trying to appear strong when their hand is weak and vice versa. So if a player suddenly appears to be aggressive, and stares you down or tries to intimidate you, he is most likely bluffing to get you to fold. If he acts quiet and hesitant, he probably has a strong hand. Behavioral changes are a dead giveaway, especially when a player becomes very still and quiet. He's doing his best not to scare you because the longer he keeps you in, the bigger the pot he knows he's going to win. Better players are less obvious and their acting is kept to a minimum.
One of the most common bluff tells is covering part of the face. Most people aren't very good liars and will put a hand up to their face to distract you from what you might see in their eyes. Watch for hand-to-face movements, and avoid doing that yourself...or use it to your advantage when you have a great hand.
Not every player has a tell, and some are aware of tells and have trained themselves to show you what they want you to see, so it's not something you can rely on. But most players you'll be up against are amateurs and won't be able to help themselves. Paying attention to tells can keep you in play until you come up against the really good players.
Calculating the odds
A surprising number of people enter into play without a clue about how to calculate the odds, the poker equivalent of driving on the autobahn blindfolded. You might get lucky once in a while, but you're far more likely to get run over.
The easiest way to calculate pot odds is to consider the number of unknown cards to the number of outs, or cards that will help you. For example, if you're trying to fill a flush on the draw and you already have four suited cards, there are 46 unknown cards; out of 52 cards, you have 2 pocket cards and 4 on the board. Since there are 13 cards in a suit and you have 4, 9 are somewhere in the deck, making your odds about 4 to 1 against drawing what you need. Those odds worsen when you consider that each of the other players also holds cards and you have no way of knowing how many of your suit cards are completely unavailable. If you know the odds, you know when to play tight. Only make that gamble if the value of the pot is worth the potential loss.
Poker strategy is a necessary component of play, but winning requires putting it all together to play smart. You have to think ahead of the game and develop an instinct for situational play. Every table is different, every game is different and every situation is different. Your winning strategy is to develop some basic weaponry and then use that knowledge to adapt to the game at hand.
Well I hope this helped, chances are that if you follow these basic princaples you will be leaving the poker table with more bitcoins than you came in with.
submitted by JamieAlmeda to betbitcoins [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA: We made BET RAISE FOLD, a documentary about the boom and bust of online poker in the USA - ASK US ANYTHING!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2013-12-09
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
Do you think online poker will go through another boom when it is fully reintegrated in the United States? What is the biggest way that most online poker pros have maintained their way of living post Black Friday? Do you have any other docs in the works? I really enjoyed Bet Raise Fold. I think it would be v hard for it to "boom" (like explode out of nowhere like it did in the 2000s) again, but it will surely grow, and I'm optimistic that it will grow to be an even larger industry than before (over the long run, could take a decade or more). like Yoda says, "hard to see, the future is." totally applies to the future of online poker - there are so many known and unknown variables at play at all times.
How much of 2M2MM was staged? It was a very entertaining show to watch.. any chances for another season? Hmm, hard to say. all reality TV is staged to some degree. from what I understand/gleaned from the production team working on the show (they were all vets of the reality TV world, worked on shows like Amazing Race and Ghost Hunters), 2M2MM trended much closer to the documentary side of reality tv than most. that said, I often compare the experience of 2M2MM like being an actor playing myself - and I think everyone who participated would prob agree w that. the plots of each episode were set up in advance (though we'd argue vigorously with the prodco to make sure if anything was "set up for the show" it'd be something we normally might do in real life). the most staged stuff would be like the house wars vs aejones/luckychewy (situation set up for the show), or aspects of the Benyamine match (Erica Schoenberg is at the pool specifically for our scene, it's not a chance encounter), or Dani and Chewy hunting for girls for the Connect 4 Charity episode. the completely real stuff is all the poker action - our bankrolls and emotions on full display for the world!
The Tilt Room was set up for the show, too - maybe my greatest invention all time. smashing watermelons with a sledgehammer is an awesome way to de-tilt (but very wasteful!!! smashing pottery - more responsible way to fill your tilt room, ppl)
Did you guys ever wake up Emil? On 2M2MM, the production team famously had to break down two doors of his (he won the master bedroom and it was so ballin it had two doors he could lock to keep people out) to wake him up for a shoot towards the end of filming.
We did wake him up, and he had a piece of that action - so it was a more pleasant awakening than the times we'd prank wake him by telling him all the pizzerias in NY were on strike or the house was on fire.
Actually, did Viffer ever find out about his pot bet bluffing tell? I heard he went into lockdown and wouldn't come out until he had fixed it :)
Who would be in your team of poker player super heroes and who would their x-men or avengers counter parts be? Maybe best question anyone has ever asked.
Ashton Griffin - Wolverine.
Ben "Sauce" Sulsky - Beast.
Ziigmund - Thor.
Dani Stern - The Incredible Hulk.
Vanessa Selbst - Jean Grey.
Aaron "aejones" Jones - Iron Man.
Jennifer Harman - Storm.
Erik Seidel - Captain America.
Chris Ferguson - Gambit.
Not a superhero but Howard Lederer is totally Kingpin. (actually, Kingpin might have to be Ivey...)
ROSENKRANTZ - Do you still play poker as a main source of income? When you do play do you play online outside of the US or live? Nope - i actually don't play much poker at all, outside of WSOP. i'll play in home games now and then but it's mostly a social thing. was thinking about making an extended trip to Montreal to visit Martin, hear him play music and grind online next year... i miss playing online poker a TON. what's more fun than stacking n00bs with AA.
Check-raising stupid fucking tourists? Stacks and towers of checks I can't even see over!!!
Do you think that you could persuade the Alamo Drafthouse in Denver to have a showing? If these three screenings (Yonkers, Austin, KC) are profitable for them, or I can show them we have a strong group of people in Denver who'd come out, it's a possibility...
Yo Krantz, where is the information on the one in Yonkers? I live in Queens would love to go and show my support. Oh man, thanks for the support - it happened last week though :/
How often do you play live/online (hours per week/month or whatever)? What stakes? Also, you guys toss money around like toilet paper. Send me a couple grand so i can make a tilt/lockdown room and go pro. Thanks, man! If you surf through some of the other posts in this thread you can read some more, but since Black Friday I don't play much poker live or online. If there were legal online poker in my state right now, I'd probably dabble in small and mid stakes and try to build up a bankroll playing NLHE/PLO cash (shorthanded and heads up) and the occasional tournament!
2M2MM was in 2009, 4+ years later and all that toilet paper is more valuable to everybody :)
With your experience in documentary and financing, can you get "I BET YOU" tv series back in production? phil laak craziness needs to be serialized. If I ever run into him, I will plant the seed. should have run 6 seasons and a movie.
Do you think bitcoin will change the future of online gambling? I'm still trying to wrap my head around bitcoin... i have these handy videos bookmarked to watch as soon as i get some free time! Link to www.khanacademy.org
Link to www.youtube.com
Do you see the games remaining as reg-infested and hard as they are now? Is there a point where everything about NLHE is basically known and therefore the skill level of most pros will be capped? Not if the sites figure out how to bring in more casual players - a priority for their businesses as the US market legalizes and the global market matures. Hard to say what the games could look like in 5 years... I think there will be fewer pros/regs. Also think NLHE will always be the most popular game even though basic strategy is pretty well known to anyone who wants to put in the time.
Hi, Jay. Great movie, really enjoyed it. Thanks! My plans are really to throw myself into writing and producing with the same focus and intensity that I gave to poker during my early 20s. I'd like to write and publish some books (fiction, nonfiction, poker, nonpoker), write and produce more movies, TV, games... I'm inspired by artists like Joss Whedon, Ray Bradbury, Hayao Miyazaki, Bill Watterson... entrepreneurs like Tim League, Burnie Burns and Felicia Day and the folks at VHX and Pixar and Valve... Basically, I want to build a career in popular entertainment, telling smart, resonant stories to larger and larger audiences. And I want to work with the best people I can while I do this.
What are your plans for the next 1-5 years? I also plan to win the WSOP Main Event, but that could take 6-7 years because you gotta get lucky!
Are you still friends with the cast from 2M2MM and do you and any of them still rent a house in Vegas for the summer? We are great friends! I actually lived with Emil and Brian in a house this summer while I was out at the WSOP premiering BRF. We worked out a ton (Brian is REALLY into Olympic weightlifting these days) and watched lots of movies. There was a movie theater room in the house and those guys have eclectic wide ranging tastes in film so it was really fun. One of our favorites was this Norwegian crime thrilleblack comedy called Headhunters: Link to www.imdb.com
Also I was one of the many backers on Kickstarter for BRF. How tedious was it putting everyone's name in the credits? Dani, Brian and Emil lived together in Toronto for awhile post Black Friday but now Dani has a serious girlfriend, a dog and a cat and they're all living in different countries (well, Dani and Brian live near each other in Mexico but Emil's in Finland)
As poker players, do you feel like you've lost an appreciation for money? Who do you think is the most overrated poker player nowadays? I definitely lost any conception of the value of the dollar during the height of the online poker boom. Post Black Friday, 3 years later, I feel like I have a much healthier and more reasonable relationship with money. I think any serious poker player has to divorce himself from the value of money in order to risk it with complete and utter disregard for anything but the expected value of the play. If I had to answer the overrated question... I'd say wcrider (sp?) is overrated. Not skill wise - I have no idea how good or bad he is objectively - but I've read a few of his forum posts on 2p2 and he is clearly young with a huge ego, and you just can't be the best in the world with an ego the size of an elephant (though it can give you some huge competitive advantages). But see how subjective a question like this is? For the most part the idea of underrated or overrated players is worthless, variance is a way bigger factor than anyone understands... the only person who can truly and accurately "rate" a poker player's skill is the player themselves!
Will there be any new videos on TheMicros? I so hope so. The major problem for us is the economics... the cost of animating those episodes is pretty big in terms of money and time. The sponsorship model worked great pre-Black Friday, but post Black Friday and the market for an animated poker show is completely different. John and I have thought about Kickstarting it, but I'm not confident we could raise enough money to do it the way we'd want to (if we come back, we want to come back full throttle, with regularly scheduled content and season long storylines... we don't want to just put up an episode or two here or there). There are a few options I've been thinking about, but they're just ideas at this point.
There's a big possibility we'll come back soon with regular comics, though. You can check out some examples of what these would look like on our Facebook page (there's a photo gallery of the ~12 comics we've done so far): Link to www.facebook.com
Hey all, what are your thoughts on regulated poker, putting Delaware politely to one side, is there half a chance of it being successful in New Jersey, without interstate compacts? By successful, I probably mean will we see guy n girls like you in that state playing for a living? Will there be the liquidity to sustain a more than a handful of full timers? I think it will be successful but it will not explode overnight, it will take time and nurturing like any good crop... growing the igaming business in NJ, the companies' priorities are not necessarily directly in line with catering to guys/gals like us who want to play for a living. So I don't think you'll see many full timers playing exclusively on NJ sites. See Joe Tall's post in this thread for more insight into this, it's pretty good!
Probably too late but I'll give it a shot anyway. I tried to/try to study and it felt like pulling teeth. I became interested in applications of game theory for a few months and the challenge of reeducating myself in basic maths was interesting... but even then I didn't feel as energized or excited about thinking about poker as I did when I was able to play and compete consistently. I decided recently that I'd just take a break until I was able to play consistently again (I have been thinking about a trip to NJ or out of the country to grind for a bit, but it's just an idea right now).
Any words of advice here? I'm tired so this is kind of rambly and I'm just talking some of this out loud for the first time, but I hope this helps a bit. Post Black Friday I've done a lot of reevaluating my relationship with poker and the expectations I have of it and it's done a lot to reverse feelings of anger, sadness and frustration at the US situation (and at the game in general).
What was the biggest thing you guys have bet on beside poker? Games of NFL Blitz, trick pool shots, what LuckyChewy thinks the distance from the Earth to the sun is, whether [name redacted] can get those strippers to come ride the inflatable dolphin, oveunder of how long they can ride it for before falling in pool... countless thousands have been won and lost on these diabolical problems.
off, great movie! It was well worth the wait. My question is this, what is the craziest, most extravagant thing you purchased with your poker winnings? Thank you! whitelime reminds me of a night in NYC at a club called Arena (who knows if this place still exists), where we went heads up against NYG running back Brandon Jacobs in a bottle-buying war. the bottles came equipped with sexy bottle babes and sparklers. we lost the bottle war to BJ (in hindsight i think we lost the battle, too - huuuge tab)
I want to first thank you for establishing an amazing training site in DC. It has helped my game immensely. For the questions: would you consider yourself more of a filmmaker or poker player at this point? In a podcast slowhabit noted poker helped his entrepeneurship immensely and vice versa. Do you see any similar parallels b/t poker and film-making? Thanks! I'll always consider myself a poker player, but in terms of profession I suppose I'm trending towards the filmmaker side of the coin. But all of the creative work I do will be influenced by the unique way I see the world - a viewpoint heavily influenced by poker. It's an insanely beautiful game: a complex blend of strategy, tactics and human emotion. Being a poker player isn't a profession to me, it's something I can't help... at this point it's part of the fabric of my identity.
I don't think we would have ended up with a movie this good (or maybe not a movie at all!) if Taylor and I didn't bring our backgrounds in poker and entrepreneurship to bear to make as many +EV decisions as we possibly could over the entirety of the project. In a lot of ways filmmaking is an entrepreneurial pursuit, in a lot of ways producing a movie is like multitabling high stakes online poker. You're juggling tons of variables, managing human relationships, analyzing risk, making high pressure decisions...
I talk a lot about this stuff in this podcast with Jared Tendler: Link to www.mentalgamefish.com
I really enjoyed the movie and showed it to my family. But their reaction across the board was: "But they only portray people who win in the game!". What do you think of this reaction? Isn't portraying mostly the pros or winning player missing a big slice of what online poker is. We were originally interested in finding a losing player... posting what Ryan posted earlier about this: "Yes, we were planning to follow someone exactly like that. However, we found it more challenging than we expected to find a compelling, losing player who was willing to go on camera. For example, I spoke briefly with grimstarr (online poker veterans will know who this is) about appearing in the film, but there were too many complications involved." After Black Friday it became pretty much impossible for us to add another character, winner or loser. We also felt like the downsides of poker had already been given a lot of treatment in the cultural representation of the game... but nothing had been done to authentically show the lives of modern professional poker players during the poker boom. Still, we did have many conversations about the losers, about the pros who are staked, etc... what we should or could convey about that aspect of the game... ultimately we decided we needed to stick to our core characters (especially after Black Friday) and their experiences. We did make an effort to explore the psychological consequences of losing as a professional, and the risks that you take on when you do play this game for a living... hopefully that sequence in the last third of the film can show that even the winners are losers, and they lose often! Basically, a lot of the energy for this project's conception was to showcase what it was like to be an online pro player, and dispel misconceptions that the public has about poker and online poker. To show the injustice done to the industry as a result of the UIGEA... to show what caused the boom... historical events like this, put into context in a digestible way. That was the driving motivation in making the film and selecting Danielle, Tony and Martin - and after Black Friday, their stories were all that mattered to this particular film. Hope this sheds some light on our thinking.
Hey Krantz! Play tons of poker, think about it with a truly open mind and engage in critical discussion of poker with tons of players of all skill levels. Tenacity and fearlessness are your words to live by (and maybe "breathe," for when you're tilting).
What advice would you have for an online player from the us that plays on bovada to move up the stakes. Currently grinding double-up sit n gos and crushing ? I really love this post about training and practice. If you want to move up and become better, work hard and work smart: Link to forumserver.twoplustwo.com
Jay, I asked you on twitter during the months leading up to the release about selling autographed pictures of some online pros in the movie on kickstarter to raise money. You replied saying it was a good idea and you'd look into it. I was thrilled, but become really bummed when I saw that the signed movie poster costs $200. I wish I could afford it, but I just can't. I graduate from university in a week and still don't have a job offer, so this is above my price range. Since you have 18/20 left, is there a chance of a price drop for them in the future? We actually only managed to get about 5-7 signed posters total and ran out! but email me your info at [email protected] and i will see if we can find some way to get you something cool! (i remember your tweets!)
In the home game you had on 2m2mm, did Andrew robl ever tell you what his other card was? He showed you a jack he hit on the river.. He didn't - I tried to get it out of him, but he wouldn't say. based on what I know of him i'm 95% sure it was a good fold (5% he made a sick bluff and is so buddha he doesn't need to brag or show it on TV)
I loved BRF by the way and my dad liked it too. It helped him understand "my world" a little better. You gotta learn the language of filmmaking, and you gotta experiment (in poker terms, you can't just study - you hafta play hands!). So try to make a little short documentary about something (this is what we did - FROM BUSTO TO ROBUSTO ended up being essential practice in learning to make something as big as BRF) and take it all the way through from preproduction to marketing and distribution, even if it's just on the tiniest scale.
I'm sure you learned so much throughout the course of making the film, so if you could go back to give yourself advice from when you just started BRF, what would you say? Thanks! It's awesome to hear about friends/family enjoying the movie. I'm heading out to host this theatrical screening in Austin but I will get back to you on your question tonight. OK, I'm back. I'm glad you love FCH because my first bit of advice is to read the ebook he just released: Link to www.amazon.com
I am curious on roughly how sales are going? How did you choose how to distribute the film. Really enjoyed the film. Direct sales through VHX were great. Not tens of thousands of people but very strong for an independent documentary. The decision to distribute the film through a combination of Kickstarter, VHX and Tugg (skipping film festivals in favor of debuting at the 2013 World Series of Poker) was made mostly as a result of talking to other filmmakers, studying the success of Indie Game: The Movie (Link to www.indiegamethemovie.com and reading Think Outside the Box Office (Link to www.amazon.com)
If we could go back and do it again I don't think we would have done much differently. The biggest change I'd have made to our strategy would have been to organize a ~6 city Tugg tour of the film to build hype before the online release, and to incorporate Kickstarter earlier in the production (it would have been really fun and cathartic to share the ups and downs of the whole production process with backers!)
Just rewatched 2M2MM a few weeks back...LOL at Jay's roller skating penalty stunt. Question about the doc...how did you decide on profiling Dunst, Alexei and Danielle? Who else was a finalist to be featured? Still got those roller skates!
Why does ansky keep knocking me out of ftops!! Pretty sure this stems from his anger issues. see 2M2MM Mach 5 snap call argument for evidence. he HULKS out when he sees your SN and smashes your soul!
Not so much a question as an obvious point. Loved the film, loved being a part of it and helping out. I really don't have anything else. If anyone here hasn't seen the film yet, do so asap. It really is an incredible piece of work. Love you too, bro! and not just because you're also named Jay. it's because the goddamn FORCE IS WITH YOU.
Given that Jay's poker training site, "Deuces Cracked" ( Link to www.deucescracked.co ), actually make Duck merchandise ( Link to img651.imageshack.us ), and your username is PERSIANDUCK i think you guys should form the first poker supergroup and call yourselves "THE MIGHTY DUCKS". Those ducks are collectors items!!!
I assume this question was targeted at Jay or Tony/Danielle/Martin, but the most extravagant thing I ever purchased was an $800 couch. Still had the wrapper on it and everything. Where'd you get $800?
Jay,The Texas Legislator will go back in to session in Jan of 2015. I expect that there will be hearing for both live and online poker. Since your living in the Austin would you be willing to testify at the State Capitol in Austin in front of the Texas State Legislator to help bring poker to Texas. I love comedy but have 0 appetite for politics. I don't believe I could say anything that would be more helpful than what we've said in making Bet Raise Fold, and I don't believe that anything but money will help bring poker to Texas :)
Very tedious, but well well worth it. Thanks so much for supporting the project! Yes, huge thank you for backing us!
Krantz, in a deucescracked video where you commentated with ariel about his match against tie53, bit of a famous hand. Q67hh-Tss, Tie53 check raises a committing size on the turn. we fold Q6. Do you still think this was a close fold with Q6 or do you appreciate now that it was probably wrong. Don't recall the specifics of that hand but I think past Jay/past Ariel were probably right and no one, not even me from the future, would know better than them :)
Last updated: 2013-12-13 16:03 UTC
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